Track record · closed signal

Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) — closed signal from August 11, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 9, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSLA price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$342.53 Published $445.29 Target $429.52 Window close $474.07 Peak
$332.00 – $348.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$342.53Published — price the day we called it
$445.29Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$474.07Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$429.52Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 49 days.

Peak price
$474.07
peak on November 3, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+38.4%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$429.52
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
49
Window
August 11, 2025 – November 9, 2025

The thesis — published August 11, 2025

Predicted growth
+30%
over the measurement window
Target price
$445.29
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$332.00 – $348.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$342.53
published August 11, 2025
Confidence
70%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Tesla's recent strong run has some real business support. A $4.3B deal with LG secures battery supply from 2027, which lowers the chance of bottlenecks as the company grows. Price action is strong and lots more people are buying than usual. Even if excitement is a bit ahead of results, a positive market backdrop suggests buying dips could work over the next 3 months if the company keeps delivering despite swings.

Primary drivers

  • A $4.3B battery deal with LG secures supply from 2027, reducing growth risks.
  • Strong price trend with more buyers than usual, signaling ongoing interest.
  • Fewer investors piled into the stock, leaving room for new buyers to join.
  • Market mood is helpful for stocks like this, lifting near-term performance.

How it played out

TSLA: target reached in 49 days

On 2025-08-11, Lyra published a short-term TSLA thesis at 342.53 with expected growth of 30%. The thesis pointed to a $4.3B LG battery deal for supply from 2027, a strong price trend, more buyers than usual, fewer investors piled into the stock, and a helpful market mood.

Inside the window from 2025-08-11 to 2025-11-09, TSLA peaked at 474.07 on 2025-11-03, above the 445.29 target. It reached the target in 49 days. Peak gain was 38.4%. The stock ended at 429.52. The thesis played out.

What happened during the window

On 2025-10-02, Tesla reported Q3 2025 deliveries of 497,099 vehicles. On 2025-10-22, Tesla reported Q3 2025 revenue of $28.1 billion and adjusted earnings per share of $0.50.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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