Track record · closed signal

Applovin Corp (APP) — closed signal from June 8, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on September 6, 2026 — -43.1% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

APP price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$563.01 Published $653.09 Target $320.56 Window close $576.46 Peak
$535.00 – $565.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$563.01Published — price the day we called it
$653.09Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$576.46Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$320.56Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 15% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close
-43.1%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+2.4%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+4.5%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$320.56
last close inside the window, ended September 6, 2026
Peak price
$576.46
peak on July 2, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published June 8, 2026

Predicted growth
+16%
over the measurement window
Target price
$653.09
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$535.00 – $565.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$563.01
published June 8, 2026
Confidence
72%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

AppLovin is a fast-growing ad software company that just reported strong results and generated lots of cash. That combination makes it attractive for growth exposure, but the stock can fall quickly because its price is sensitive and some insiders have sold shares. Short-term gains depend on continued strength in digital advertising and demand for profitable AI ad tools.

Primary drivers

  • AI-powered ad tools are being adopted more by app makers
  • Latest results showed the company turned in strong cash flow
  • High profit levels justify a premium price for growth
  • Insider selling and a high price level limit conviction

How it played out

APP: the 16% growth thesis missed

Lyra published a short-term thesis for a 16% rise from $563.01 toward $653.09. The thesis pointed to strong cash generation, wider adoption of artificial intelligence ad tools by app makers, and high profit levels. It also noted insider selling and the high share price as limits on conviction.

The stock reached its window peak of $576.46 on July 2, a gain of 2.4%. It never reached the $653.09 target. By the end of the measurement window, it was at $320.56. The published growth thesis did not play out.

What happened during the window

On August 5, 2026, AppLovin reported second-quarter revenue of $1,924 million and net income of $1,267 million.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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