Track record · closed signal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) — closed signal from June 8, 2026

Near target Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on September 6, 2026 — -0.4% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$413.48 – $432.41Entry zone — fair-value band

$430.59Published — price the day we called it

$485.67Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$479.00Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$428.91Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Near target

Came within reach: 86% of the predicted growth at its peak, just short of the target.

At window close

-0.4%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+11.2%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+4.5%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$428.91

last close inside the window, ended September 6, 2026

Peak price

$479.00

peak on June 30, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published June 8, 2026

Predicted growth

+13%

over the measurement window

Target price

$485.67

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$413.48 – $432.41

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$430.59

published June 8, 2026

Confidence

81%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

TSM is a clear way to own the chipmakers that supply advanced AI and high-performance systems. The company is delivering real profits, has strong demand for its newest chip technology, and a healthy balance sheet that helps during market swings. Recent factory yield news supports its leading position, while customer moves toward other suppliers keep risk visible. We see this as a constructive short-term setup if chip appetite steadies and investors reward proven supply-chain leaders.

Primary drivers

Demand for advanced chips is growing as AI needs more computing power
Production yield updates show TSM keeping a technology lead
Reliable profits make TSM a higher-quality chip supplier
Customers seeking backups highlight customer and geopolitical risks

How it played out

TSM: 11.2% peak gain missed the target

Lyra published TSM at 430.59, expecting 13% short-term growth toward 485.67. The thesis pointed to rising demand for advanced chips and computing power, production yields that supported its technology lead, reliable profits, and balance-sheet strength. It also flagged customer diversification and geopolitical risk.

The price rose to 479 on June 30, a peak gain of 11.2%. That was below the target, which was never reached inside the window. TSM ended the period at 428.91, compared with the published price of 430.59. The thesis partially played out: the expected direction appeared at the peak, but the full 13% gain did not hold through the end.

What happened during the window

On July 16, 2026, TSMC reported second-quarter revenue of NT$1,270.38 billion and net income of NT$706.56 billion. On August 10, 2026, it reported July revenue of NT$467.58 billion, up 44.7% from July 2025.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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