Track record · closed signal

Arm Holdings plc (ARM) — closed signal from August 11, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 9, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

ARM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$144.81 Published $179.56 Target $152.38 Window close $183.16 Peak
$140.00 – $148.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$144.81Published — price the day we called it
$179.56Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$183.16Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$152.38Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 64 days.

Peak price
$183.16
peak on October 27, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+26.5%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$152.38
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
64
Window
August 11, 2025 – November 9, 2025

The thesis — published August 11, 2025

Predicted growth
+24%
over the measurement window
Target price
$179.56
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$140.00 – $148.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$144.81
published August 11, 2025
Confidence
72%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Arm looks set for a possible rebound. A research firm just started coverage with a Buy and a $150 target, saying its potential customer base has roughly tripled and its share in data centers is rising. Reports also note about half of servers use Arm's designs. We prefer entries around $140-$145 and get more confident if price moves over $148. In the next 3 months, steadier mood and big cloud demand could help the stock.

Primary drivers

  • New analyst Buy rating with a price target to guide expectations
  • Potential customer base growing and a larger slice of data centers
  • Price looks washed out, increasing odds of a near-term rebound soon
  • Unusually heavy trading hints more buyers stepping in than usual now

How it played out

ARM: target reached in 64 days

Lyra published ARM at $144.81 on 2025-08-11 with a short-term thesis for 24% growth. The thesis pointed to a new Buy rating, a wider potential customer base, more data-center share, heavy trading, steadier mood, and cloud demand. It preferred entries around $140-$145 and wanted more confidence above $148.

Inside the window, ARM reached a peak of $183.16 on 2025-10-27, above the $179.56 target. The target was reached in 64 days. The peak gain was 26.5%. By 2025-11-09, the stock ended at $152.38. The published thesis played out.

What happened during the window

On 2025-11-05, Arm reported fiscal second-quarter revenue of $1.14 billion and adjusted earnings of $0.39 per share. The same report said Arm guided for fiscal third-quarter sales of $1.23 billion and adjusted earnings of $0.41 per share.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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