Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM) — closed signal from August 11, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 9, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 56 days.
The thesis — published August 11, 2025
TSMC is a key maker of chips used for AI, so demand stays strong. Even though the short-term trend looks weak, lots more people are buying than usual and the recent average price is ticking up, which is a healthy sign. News about China can swing the stock, but it does not change TSMC's lead in advanced chips. If the market stays steady, more factory output and steady orders could lift shares toward prior highs in about three months.
Primary drivers
- Growing need for AI chips and cutting-edge manufacturing
- Heavier buying and a rising recent average price
- Factories ramping up with steady customer orders
- Policy news can cause sharp price swings
How it played out
TSM: target reached in 56 days
Lyra published TSM on 2025-08-11 at 243.11. The thesis expected 22% growth toward 294.86 in about three months. It pointed to demand for chips used in artificial intelligence, heavier buying, a rising recent average price, factory output, steady orders, and policy news that could cause sharp price swings.
Inside the window, the stock reached the target in 56 days. It peaked at 310.53 on 2025-10-16, with a 27.7% peak gain. It ended the window at 285.73. The thesis played out, even though the close was below the peak and below the target.
What happened during the window
On 2025-10-16, TSMC reported Q3 revenue of $33.10 billion, up 40.8% year over year and 10.1% quarter over quarter. It also forecast Q4 revenue between $32.2 billion and $33.4 billion.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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