Track record · closed signal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) — closed signal from June 4, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on September 2, 2026 — -3.7% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$418.46 – $433.40Entry zone — fair-value band

$431.48Published — price the day we called it

$478.06Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$479.00Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$415.50Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 26 days.

At window close

-3.7%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+11%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+1.3%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$415.50

last close inside the window, ended September 2, 2026

Peak price

$479.00

peak on June 30, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published June 4, 2026

Predicted growth

+11%

over the measurement window

Target price

$478.06

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$418.46 – $433.40

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$431.48

published June 4, 2026

Confidence

78%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

TSMC gives strong short-term exposure to AI hardware because many customers need chips and shortages might continue. Its manufacturing edge and healthy balance sheet make demand more certain than for many peers. Upside is limited by a high price, crowded investor interest, and political risk tied to Taiwan, so this is quality exposure, not a high-upside swing.

Primary drivers

Ongoing chip shortages mean steady orders for TSMC
Adding US factories increases strategic importance
High profit manufacturing helps the company absorb shocks
Strong balance sheet reduces risks from geopolitics

How it played out

TSM: target reached in 26 days

Lyra published an expected 11% rise from 431.48 toward 478.06. The thesis pointed to chip shortages supporting orders, US factories increasing strategic importance, profitable manufacturing helping absorb shocks, and the balance sheet reducing geopolitical risk. It also cited the high price, crowded investor interest, and political risk tied to Taiwan as limits.

The shares reached the target in 26 days and peaked at 479 on June 30, an 11% gain. They then fell and ended the window at 415.50 on September 2. The thesis played out within the measurement window, but the gain did not hold through the end.

What happened during the window

On July 16, 2026, TSMC reported second-quarter revenue of NT$1,270.38 billion and diluted earnings per share of NT$27.25. On August 11, 2026, TSMC and Sony Semiconductor Solutions announced a binding agreement to establish a joint venture for next-generation image sensors.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All TSM signals