Track record · closed signal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) — closed signal from June 4, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on September 2, 2026 — -3.7% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$431.48 Published $478.06 Target $415.50 Window close $479.00 Peak
$418.46 – $433.40Entry zone — fair-value band
$431.48Published — price the day we called it
$478.06Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$479.00Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$415.50Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 26 days.

At window close
-3.7%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+11%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+1.3%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$415.50
last close inside the window, ended September 2, 2026
Peak price
$479.00
peak on June 30, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
26

The thesis — published June 4, 2026

Predicted growth
+11%
over the measurement window
Target price
$478.06
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$418.46 – $433.40
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$431.48
published June 4, 2026
Confidence
78%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

TSMC gives strong short-term exposure to AI hardware because many customers need chips and shortages might continue. Its manufacturing edge and healthy balance sheet make demand more certain than for many peers. Upside is limited by a high price, crowded investor interest, and political risk tied to Taiwan, so this is quality exposure, not a high-upside swing.

Primary drivers

  • Ongoing chip shortages mean steady orders for TSMC
  • Adding US factories increases strategic importance
  • High profit manufacturing helps the company absorb shocks
  • Strong balance sheet reduces risks from geopolitics

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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