Track record · closed signal

Vista Oil Gas ADR (VIST) — closed signal from June 3, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on September 1, 2026 — -2.9% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

VIST price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$72.00 – $77.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$76.97Published — price the day we called it

$90.05Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$77.93Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$74.71Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 8% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

-2.9%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+1.3%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+1.3%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$74.71

last close inside the window, ended September 1, 2026

Peak price

$77.93

peak on June 3, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published June 3, 2026

Predicted growth

+17%

over the measurement window

Target price

$90.05

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$72.00 – $77.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$76.97

published June 3, 2026

Confidence

67%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Vista is a high-upside but risky energy pick. Strong production growth and interest from value-focused coverage support the case, and a positive price trend helps. However, a recent earnings miss, thin trading, company leverage, and Argentina-specific risks make short-term outcomes sensitive to oil prices and execution, so overall conviction is modest.

Primary drivers

Growing output in Vaca Muerta strengthens the growth story
Value-focused coverage points to possible upside
Positive price trend offsets some recent earnings weakness
Country and oil-price risks keep the view cautious

How it played out

VIST: the 17% growth thesis missed its target

Lyra published VIST at $76.97 with an expected gain of 17% and a $90.05 target. The thesis pointed to growing Vaca Muerta output, value-focused coverage, and a positive price trend. It also cited the recent earnings miss, thin trading, leverage, country risk, and oil-price risk.

VIST peaked at $77.93 on June 3, a gain of 1.3%. It never reached the target. The shares ended the window at $74.71 on September 1, below both the published price and target. The thesis did not play out during the measurement window.

What happened during the window

On July 16, Vista reported its second-quarter financial and operational results. On July 27, it reported that it had repurchased 50,000 Series A shares on July 24.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All VIST signals