Track record · closed signal

Vista Oil Gas ADR (VIST) — closed signal from June 2, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on August 31, 2026 — -6.4% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

VIST price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$76.33 Published $87.78 Target $71.46 Window close $77.93 Peak
$72.00 – $76.50Entry zone — fair-value band
$76.33Published — price the day we called it
$87.78Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$77.93Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$71.46Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 14% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close
-6.4%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+2.1%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+1.2%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$71.46
last close inside the window, ended August 31, 2026
Peak price
$77.93
peak on June 3, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published June 2, 2026

Predicted growth
+15%
over the measurement window
Target price
$87.78
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$72.00 – $76.50
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$76.33
published June 2, 2026
Confidence
66%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Vista combines near-term value and potential growth from expanding shale output and talk of returning cash to shareholders. Recent announcements suggest meaningful long-term upside and a low valuation story, but the latest results fell short because oil and gas prices weighed on earnings. Thin trading and debt make it a speculative, time-limited opportunity.

Primary drivers

  • Expanding shale production supports future output
  • Shareholder-return talk improves the value story
  • Earnings shortfall shows sensitivity to commodity prices
  • Light trading and leverage make the case opportunistic

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All VIST signals