Track record · closed signal

Vista Oil Gas ADR (VIST) — closed signal from June 2, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on August 31, 2026 — -6.4% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

VIST price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$72.00 – $76.50Entry zone — fair-value band

$76.33Published — price the day we called it

$87.78Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$77.93Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$71.46Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 14% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

-6.4%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+2.1%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+1.2%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$71.46

last close inside the window, ended August 31, 2026

Peak price

$77.93

peak on June 3, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published June 2, 2026

Predicted growth

+15%

over the measurement window

Target price

$87.78

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$72.00 – $76.50

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$76.33

published June 2, 2026

Confidence

66%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Vista combines near-term value and potential growth from expanding shale output and talk of returning cash to shareholders. Recent announcements suggest meaningful long-term upside and a low valuation story, but the latest results fell short because oil and gas prices weighed on earnings. Thin trading and debt make it a speculative, time-limited opportunity.

Primary drivers

Expanding shale production supports future output
Shareholder-return talk improves the value story
Earnings shortfall shows sensitivity to commodity prices
Light trading and leverage make the case opportunistic

How it played out

VIST: the target was never reached

Lyra published a short-term thesis for 15% growth from 76.33, with a target of 87.78. The thesis pointed to expanding shale production, possible shareholder returns, and a low valuation. It also noted weaker earnings tied to commodity prices, along with light trading and leverage as risks.

VIST peaked at 77.93 on June 3, a 2.1% gain. It never reached 87.78 during the window. The shares ended at 71.46 on August 31, below the publication price and the target. The expected 15% rise did not play out. This was a miss.

What happened during the window

On June 10, 2026, Vista announced that it would release its second-quarter results on July 16. On July 16, Vista reported those results, which included acquired interests consolidated from May 1.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All VIST signals