Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) — closed signal from June 2, 2026
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on August 31, 2026 — -5.9% at the close.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 20 days.
The thesis — published June 2, 2026
TSMC is a top supplier for AI chips and recent news about memory capacity and chip demand supports the industry. However, the stock jumped strongly and looks stretched, so near-term gains appear limited. Geopolitical factors add risk. We see the company as high quality but current timing favors waiting for a calmer price to improve risk versus reward.
Primary drivers
- Leading foundry role supports steady AI chip demand
- Memory capacity updates boost industry infrastructure spending
- Consistent execution gives the business credibility
- Recent strong price move limits near-term upside and raises timing risk
How it played out
TSM: target reached in 20 days
Lyra published an 8% short-term growth thesis from 441.14, with a 475.55 target and a 413.48 to 433.40 entry zone. The thesis pointed to TSMC's leading foundry role, steady demand for artificial intelligence chips, memory capacity updates, consistent execution, and the risk that the recent rise had stretched the stock.
The price reached the target in 20 days and peaked at 479 on June 30, a gain of 8.6%. It then fell and ended the window at 415.32 on August 31. The expected rise played out inside the window, but it did not hold through the end.
What happened during the window
On July 16, TSMC reported second-quarter earnings per share of NT$27.25 and revenue growth of 36.0% from a year earlier.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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