Track record · closed signal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) — closed signal from June 2, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on August 31, 2026 — -5.9% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$441.14 Published $475.55 Target $415.32 Window close $479.00 Peak
$413.48 – $433.40Entry zone — fair-value band
$441.14Published — price the day we called it
$475.55Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$479.00Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$415.32Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 20 days.

At window close
-5.9%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+8.6%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+1.2%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$415.32
last close inside the window, ended August 31, 2026
Peak price
$479.00
peak on June 30, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
20

The thesis — published June 2, 2026

Predicted growth
+8%
over the measurement window
Target price
$475.55
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$413.48 – $433.40
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$441.14
published June 2, 2026
Confidence
70%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

TSMC is a top supplier for AI chips and recent news about memory capacity and chip demand supports the industry. However, the stock jumped strongly and looks stretched, so near-term gains appear limited. Geopolitical factors add risk. We see the company as high quality but current timing favors waiting for a calmer price to improve risk versus reward.

Primary drivers

  • Leading foundry role supports steady AI chip demand
  • Memory capacity updates boost industry infrastructure spending
  • Consistent execution gives the business credibility
  • Recent strong price move limits near-term upside and raises timing risk

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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