Track record · closed signal

Vista Oil Gas ADR (VIST) — closed signal from June 1, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on August 30, 2026 — -7.6% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

VIST price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$70.00 – $77.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$75.95Published — price the day we called it

$87.34Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$78.00Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$70.14Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 18% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

-7.6%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+2.7%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+1.7%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$70.14

last close inside the window, ended August 30, 2026

Peak price

$78.00

peak on June 1, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published June 1, 2026

Predicted growth

+15%

over the measurement window

Target price

$87.34

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$70.00 – $77.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$75.95

published June 1, 2026

Confidence

66%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Vista offers clear energy growth potential tied to Argentine shale assets, but there are several risks. Recent coverage and insider stake point to value, yet a big earnings shortfall from lower realized oil prices shows results can vary. The stock looks cheap, but gains depend on oil prices, production delivery, capital discipline, and steadier earnings.

Primary drivers

Vaca Muerta exposure gives differentiated growth from local shale production
Value-focused coverage and insider ownership raise investor attention
Performance swings with commodity prices, which drive upside and downside
Recent earnings miss shows the company must improve delivery and reporting consistency

How it played out

VIST: the thesis didn't play out

Lyra published VIST at 75.94, expecting 15% growth toward 87.34. The thesis pointed to Vaca Muerta shale exposure, value-focused coverage and insider ownership. It also said commodity prices, production delivery, capital discipline, and steadier earnings would shape the result after a recent earnings miss.

Inside the window, VIST peaked at 78 on June 1, a 2.7% gain. It never reached 87.34. By August 30, it had fallen to 70.14, below the 75.94 publication price. The expected growth did not arrive. The thesis missed.

What happened during the window

On July 16, 2026, Vista reported its second-quarter financial and operational results. On August 5, 2026, the company repurchased 50,000 Series A shares.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All VIST signals