Track record · closed signal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) — closed signal from June 1, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on August 30, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$433.43 Published $471.57 Target $417.52 Window close $479.00 Peak
$413.48 – $433.40Entry zone — fair-value band
$433.43Published — price the day we called it
$471.57Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$479.00Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$417.52Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 21 days.

Peak price
$479.00
peak on June 30, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+10.5%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$417.52
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
21
Window
June 1, 2026 – August 30, 2026

The thesis — published June 1, 2026

Predicted growth
+9%
over the measurement window
Target price
$471.57
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$413.48 – $433.40
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$433.43
published June 1, 2026
Confidence
80%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

TSM looks like a solid short-term AI-infrastructure name because many customers need its advanced chip-making capacity, profits have been steady, and the balance sheet is strong. Nvidia-related customer news and a smaller premium for ADRs make it easier for global buyers. The stock is already somewhat extended, so measured sizing is important.

Primary drivers

  • Strong demand for advanced chipmaking from AI and high-performance computing customers
  • Nvidia product news adds clarity to upcoming customer orders
  • Steady earnings increase confidence in future forecasts
  • Smaller ADR premium can ease buying by global investors

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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