Track record · closed signal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) — closed signal from June 1, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on August 30, 2026 — -3.7% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$413.48 – $433.40Entry zone — fair-value band

$433.43Published — price the day we called it

$471.57Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$479.00Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$417.52Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 21 days.

At window close

-3.7%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+10.5%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+1.7%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$417.52

last close inside the window, ended August 30, 2026

Peak price

$479.00

peak on June 30, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published June 1, 2026

Predicted growth

+9%

over the measurement window

Target price

$471.57

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$413.48 – $433.40

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$433.43

published June 1, 2026

Confidence

80%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

TSM looks like a solid short-term AI-infrastructure name because many customers need its advanced chip-making capacity, profits have been steady, and the balance sheet is strong. Nvidia-related customer news and a smaller premium for ADRs make it easier for global buyers. The stock is already somewhat extended, so measured sizing is important.

Primary drivers

Strong demand for advanced chipmaking from AI and high-performance computing customers
Nvidia product news adds clarity to upcoming customer orders
Steady earnings increase confidence in future forecasts
Smaller ADR premium can ease buying by global investors

How it played out

TSM: target reached in 21 days

Lyra published a short-term thesis at 433.43, expecting 9% growth toward 471.57. The thesis pointed to demand for advanced chipmaking from artificial intelligence and high-performance computing customers, Nvidia product news, steady earnings, and a smaller ADR premium for global buyers.

The price reached 479 on June 30, a 10.5% peak gain, and crossed the target in 21 days. It then fell and ended the window at 417.52. The published price objective was achieved inside the measurement window, so the thesis played out on its stated short-term terms.

What happened during the window

On July 16, TSMC reported second-quarter revenue of NT$1,270.38 billion and diluted earnings per share of NT$27.25. On August 10, it reported July revenue of NT$467.58 billion, up 44.7% from July 2025.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All TSM signals