Track record · closed signal

Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) — closed signal from May 31, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on August 29, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

MSFT price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$450.24 Published $522.28 Target $513.53 Window close $517.78 Peak
$425.00 – $445.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$450.24Published — price the day we called it
$522.28Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$517.78Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$513.53Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Hit or exceeded the predicted growth inside the window.

Peak price
$517.78
peak on August 28, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+15%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$513.53
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
Window
May 31, 2026 – August 29, 2026

The thesis — published May 31, 2026

Predicted growth
+16%
over the measurement window
Target price
$522.28
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$425.00 – $445.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$450.24
published May 31, 2026
Confidence
78%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Microsoft is approved for its high-quality business rather than perfect timing. Strong cloud demand, healthy profit margins, steady profit beats, and a clear AI revenue update plus a bigger EY partnership make the growth story concrete. The near-term risk is that many investors have already bought in, so a pullback that cools momentum looks like the safer short-term opportunity.

Primary drivers

  • AI revenue update gives a clear, measurable reason for growth
  • Larger EY partnership speeds enterprise adoption of AI services
  • Cloud and productivity products keep revenue steady over time
  • Waiting for a pullback reduces risk from crowded buying pressure

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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