Track record · closed signal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) — closed signal from May 29, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on August 27, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$428.65 Published $479.21 Target $427.30 Window close $479.00 Peak
$403.51 – $418.46Entry zone — fair-value band
$428.65Published — price the day we called it
$479.21Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$479.00Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$427.30Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Hit or exceeded the predicted growth inside the window.

Peak price
$479.00
peak on June 30, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+11.7%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$427.30
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
May 29, 2026 – August 27, 2026

The thesis — published May 29, 2026

Predicted growth
+12%
over the measurement window
Target price
$479.21
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$403.51 – $418.46
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$428.65
published May 29, 2026
Confidence
80%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

TSM is a key supplier for AI and data-center chips. Recent Taiwan supply-chain updates make demand for advanced chip making and packaging more likely to stay strong. Profitability and the balance sheet are solid, but the stock moved up quickly, so the near-term case favors waiting for a period of calm price behavior rather than chasing the rally.

Primary drivers

  • Growing need for advanced chip-making capacity for AI systems
  • Rising demand for advanced packaging and data-center chips from recent news
  • Steady earnings delivery and good profit margins
  • Healthy balance sheet that funds factory expansion

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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