Track record · closed signal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) — closed signal from May 29, 2026

Near target Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on August 27, 2026 — -0.3% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$428.65 Published $479.21 Target $427.30 Window close $479.00 Peak
$403.51 – $418.46Entry zone — fair-value band
$428.65Published — price the day we called it
$479.21Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$479.00Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$427.30Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Near target

Came within reach: 98% of the predicted growth at its peak, just short of the target.

At window close
-0.3%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+11.7%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+2.2%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$427.30
last close inside the window, ended August 27, 2026
Peak price
$479.00
peak on June 30, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published May 29, 2026

Predicted growth
+12%
over the measurement window
Target price
$479.21
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$403.51 – $418.46
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$428.65
published May 29, 2026
Confidence
80%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

TSM is a key supplier for AI and data-center chips. Recent Taiwan supply-chain updates make demand for advanced chip making and packaging more likely to stay strong. Profitability and the balance sheet are solid, but the stock moved up quickly, so the near-term case favors waiting for a period of calm price behavior rather than chasing the rally.

Primary drivers

  • Growing need for advanced chip-making capacity for AI systems
  • Rising demand for advanced packaging and data-center chips from recent news
  • Steady earnings delivery and good profit margins
  • Healthy balance sheet that funds factory expansion

How it played out

TSM: the thesis nearly reached its target

Lyra published a short-term thesis for 12% growth from a price of $428.65. The thesis pointed to demand for advanced chip-making capacity, packaging and data-center chips, steady earnings, good margins, and a healthy balance sheet. It also warned that the stock had risen quickly and favored calmer price behavior.

TSM rose to a peak of $479 on June 30, a gain of 11.7%. That stayed just below the $479.21 target, so the target was never reached. The stock ended the window at $427.30 on August 27. The thesis partially played out, but it missed its published target.

What happened during the window

On July 16, 2026, TSMC reported second-quarter revenue of NT$1,270.38 billion and net income of NT$706.56 billion. It said revenue rose 36.0% from a year earlier.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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