Track record · closed signal

Vista Oil Gas ADR (VIST) — closed signal from May 28, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on August 26, 2026 — -9% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

VIST price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$75.48 Published $90.58 Target $68.66 Window close $78.00 Peak
$71.00 – $76.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$75.48Published — price the day we called it
$90.58Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$78.00Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$68.66Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 16% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close
-9%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+3.3%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+1.8%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$68.66
last close inside the window, ended August 26, 2026
Peak price
$78.00
peak on June 1, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published May 28, 2026

Predicted growth
+20%
over the measurement window
Target price
$90.58
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$71.00 – $76.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$75.48
published May 28, 2026
Confidence
68%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Vista Energy could offer big upside because it is growing production in a major Latin American shale region and looks inexpensive compared with peers. Recent positives include interest from value-focused investors and insider ownership. The company is vulnerable to lower oil prices and recent earnings fell short, so gains need steadier commodity prices and clearer execution.

Primary drivers

  • Growing output from Vaca Muerta supports future revenue
  • Value-focused coverage attracts investor attention
  • Insiders owning stock aligns management with long-term aims
  • Company results swing with oil prices, adding both upside and risk

How it played out

VIST: the 20% thesis did not play out

Lyra published VIST at $75.48 with an expected gain of 20% and a $90.58 target. The thesis pointed to growing output from Vaca Muerta, attention from value-focused investors, insider ownership, and exposure to oil prices. It also noted that recent earnings had fallen short and that execution needed to become clearer.

The price peaked at $78 on June 1, a gain of 3.3%. It never reached the target. VIST ended the window on August 26 at $68.66, below both the publication price and the entry zone. The thesis missed within the measured window.

What happened during the window

On July 16, 2026, Vista reported its second-quarter results and said they included interests in the Bandurria Sur and Bajo del Toro blocks from May 1, 2026.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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