Track record · closed signal

Amazon.com Inc (AMZN) — closed signal from May 27, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on August 25, 2026 — -2.3% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

AMZN price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$267.24 Published $304.65 Target $261.06 Window close $287.20 Peak
$258.00 – $268.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$267.24Published — price the day we called it
$304.65Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$287.20Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$261.06Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 54% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close
-2.3%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+7.5%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+2.3%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$261.06
last close inside the window, ended August 25, 2026
Peak price
$287.20
peak on August 3, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published May 27, 2026

Predicted growth
+14%
over the measurement window
Target price
$304.65
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$258.00 – $268.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$267.24
published May 27, 2026
Confidence
76%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Amazon looks like a short-term growth idea because sales momentum is improving across online retail, ads and cloud services, and rising demand for AI compute benefits major cloud providers. News shows large AI data-center needs, which helps AWS. Some technical weakness and insider selling make confidence cautious, but trading interest and price support are constructive.

Primary drivers

  • Higher AI data-center demand boosts AWS infrastructure revenue potential
  • Retail, advertising and cloud together give multiple ways to grow profits
  • Recent quarterly results suggest better operating efficiency
  • Lots of trading near support cushions the lack of clear momentum

How it played out

AMZN: the 14% growth target was missed

Lyra published AMZN on May 27 at $267.24, with 14% expected growth over the short-term window. The thesis pointed to higher demand for artificial intelligence data-center capacity, growth across retail, advertising and cloud, better operating efficiency, and trading near price support.

AMZN rose to a $287.20 peak on August 3, a 7.5% gain, but never reached the $304.65 target. It ended the window on August 25 at $261.06. The price moved partway toward the target before giving back the gain. The thesis partially played out, but the published target was missed.

What happened during the window

On July 30, 2026, Amazon reported that second-quarter net sales rose 20% year over year and AWS net sales rose 37%.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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