Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc (ARCO) — closed signal from May 27, 2026
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on August 25, 2026 — -7.9% at the close.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 15% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published May 27, 2026
Arcos Dorados runs McDonald's restaurants across Latin America and reported stronger sales, its best first-quarter profits on record, more loyalty members, and falling costs-factors that support near-term estimates. However, shares trade thinly and the company has notable debt, so confidence in executing a trade stays moderate.
Primary drivers
- McDonald's presence supports steady customer demand
- Q1 showed better operations and lower costs
- More loyalty members can boost visits and sales
- Thin trading and debt raise execution and marketability risk
How it played out
ARCO: the 13% growth thesis missed
Lyra published ARCO at $8.83 with 13% expected growth and a $9.89 target. The thesis pointed to stronger sales, record first-quarter profits, more loyalty members, and lower costs. It also noted thin trading and debt as risks.
Inside the window, ARCO peaked at $8.99 on June 15, a 1.9% gain. It never reached the $9.89 target. By August 25, the shares had fallen to $8.13, below the publication price and the $8.36 to $8.90 entry zone. The thesis missed.
What happened during the window
On August 13, 2026, Arcos Dorados reported second-quarter revenue of $1.3 billion, up 14.3% from the prior-year period. Adjusted EBITDA was $126.8 million, up 15.2%.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
Share this receipt
A scored call, published before the outcome was known. Paste the link anywhere — it unfurls as the card above.
Read the next call before it closes.
This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.