Track record · closed signal

Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc (ARCO) — closed signal from May 27, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on August 25, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

ARCO price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$8.83 Published $9.89 Target $8.13 Window close $8.99 Peak
$8.36 – $8.90Entry zone — fair-value band
$8.83Published — price the day we called it
$9.89Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$8.99Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$8.13Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 15% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$8.99
peak on June 15, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+1.9%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$8.13
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
May 27, 2026 – August 25, 2026

The thesis — published May 27, 2026

Predicted growth
+13%
over the measurement window
Target price
$9.89
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$8.36 – $8.90
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$8.83
published May 27, 2026
Confidence
67%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Arcos Dorados runs McDonald's restaurants across Latin America and reported stronger sales, its best first-quarter profits on record, more loyalty members, and falling costs-factors that support near-term estimates. However, shares trade thinly and the company has notable debt, so confidence in executing a trade stays moderate.

Primary drivers

  • McDonald's presence supports steady customer demand
  • Q1 showed better operations and lower costs
  • More loyalty members can boost visits and sales
  • Thin trading and debt raise execution and marketability risk

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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