Track record · closed signal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) — closed signal from May 27, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on August 25, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$418.58 Published $476.30 Target $417.41 Window close $479.00 Peak
$403.51 – $423.44Entry zone — fair-value band
$418.58Published — price the day we called it
$476.30Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$479.00Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$417.41Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 34 days.

Peak price
$479.00
peak on June 30, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+14.4%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$417.41
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
34
Window
May 27, 2026 – August 25, 2026

The thesis — published May 27, 2026

Predicted growth
+14%
over the measurement window
Target price
$476.30
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$403.51 – $423.44
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$418.58
published May 27, 2026
Confidence
84%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

TSM is the clearest short-term leader among chipmakers tied to AI. It makes advanced chips used in AI servers and high-performance devices, keeps strong profit margins, has a solid balance sheet, and has regularly reported better-than-expected results. News of Nvidia spending in Taiwan and Sony working with TSMC makes future orders easier to see. The chart looks okay but not flawless, so a careful, measured approach is preferable to chasing fast gains.

Primary drivers

  • Leads advanced chip production for AI servers and high-performance uses
  • Nvidia's Taiwan plans increase visible demand for local capacity
  • Sony's sensor-chip work opens more AI-related opportunities
  • Consistent earnings and a strong balance sheet lower near-term risk

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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