Track record · closed signal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) — closed signal from May 27, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on August 25, 2026 — -0.3% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$403.51 – $423.44Entry zone — fair-value band

$418.58Published — price the day we called it

$476.30Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$479.00Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$417.41Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 34 days.

At window close

-0.3%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+14.4%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+2.3%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$417.41

last close inside the window, ended August 25, 2026

Peak price

$479.00

peak on June 30, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published May 27, 2026

Predicted growth

+14%

over the measurement window

Target price

$476.30

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$403.51 – $423.44

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$418.58

published May 27, 2026

Confidence

84%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

TSM is the clearest short-term leader among chipmakers tied to AI. It makes advanced chips used in AI servers and high-performance devices, keeps strong profit margins, has a solid balance sheet, and has regularly reported better-than-expected results. News of Nvidia spending in Taiwan and Sony working with TSMC makes future orders easier to see. The chart looks okay but not flawless, so a careful, measured approach is preferable to chasing fast gains.

Primary drivers

Leads advanced chip production for AI servers and high-performance uses
Nvidia's Taiwan plans increase visible demand for local capacity
Sony's sensor-chip work opens more AI-related opportunities
Consistent earnings and a strong balance sheet lower near-term risk

How it played out

TSM: target reached in 34 days

Lyra published a short-term thesis for TSM at 418.58, expecting 14% growth toward 476.30. The thesis pointed to leadership in advanced chips for artificial intelligence servers and high-performance devices, Nvidia's Taiwan plans, Sony's sensor-chip work, consistent earnings, strong margins, and a solid balance sheet.

TSM rose to 479 on June 30, a 14.4% peak gain. It reached the 476.30 target in 34 days. By August 25, it had fallen to 417.41, below the publication price. The thesis played out within the window because the stated target was reached, though the gain did not hold through the end date.

What happened during the window

On July 13, 2026, TSMC reported June revenue of NT$442.68 billion, up 67.9% from June 2025. On July 16, it reported second-quarter revenue of NT$1,270.38 billion and net income of NT$706.56 billion.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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