Track record · closed signal

AppLovin Corp (APP) — closed signal from May 26, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on August 24, 2026 — -44% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

APP price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$532.97 Published $596.93 Target $298.59 Window close $622.00 Peak
$500.00 – $535.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$532.97Published — price the day we called it
$596.93Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$622.00Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$298.59Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 2 days.

At window close
-44%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+16.7%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+2%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$298.59
last close inside the window, ended August 24, 2026
Peak price
$622.00
peak on June 1, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
2

The thesis — published May 26, 2026

Predicted growth
+12%
over the measurement window
Target price
$596.93
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$500.00 – $535.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$532.97
published May 26, 2026
Confidence
63%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

AppLovin is benefiting from strong demand for mobile advertising and AI-driven ad tools, which has pushed shares higher. The company earns good profit margins and the market is excited about AI links, so upside is plausible if ad spending stays strong. However, the stock is already priced for success, swings a lot, and insider selling increases the short-term risk.

Primary drivers

  • AI focus is helping sales stay strong
  • High profit margins support earnings strength
  • Recent buying shows strong market interest
  • Insider selling and big gains raise near-term risk

How it played out

APP: target reached in 2 days

Lyra published APP at $532.97 with a 12% expected gain and a $596.93 target. The thesis pointed to demand for mobile advertising, artificial intelligence driven ad tools, high profit margins, and recent buying. It also noted that the valuation, price swings, insider selling, and earlier gains raised short-term risk.

APP reached the $596.93 target in 2 days and peaked at $622 on June 1, a 16.7% gain. It later fell and ended the window at $298.59 on August 24. The published upside thesis played out within the measurement window because the target was reached, though the gain did not hold.

What happened during the window

On August 5, 2026, AppLovin reported second-quarter revenue of $1,924 million and net income of $1,267 million.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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