Track record · closed signal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) — closed signal from May 26, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on August 24, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$415.03 Published $468.12 Target $410.12 Window close $479.00 Peak
$398.53 – $414.47Entry zone — fair-value band
$415.03Published — price the day we called it
$468.12Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$479.00Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$410.12Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 27 days.

Peak price
$479.00
peak on June 30, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+15.4%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$410.12
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
27
Window
May 26, 2026 – August 24, 2026

The thesis — published May 26, 2026

Predicted growth
+13%
over the measurement window
Target price
$468.12
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$398.53 – $414.47
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$415.03
published May 26, 2026
Confidence
83%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

TSM is viewed as the top-quality chip manufacturer here because sales have more than doubled compared to last year, profit margins are wide, quarterly results keep surprising on the upside, and the company holds a lot of cash. Recent reports emphasize its strategic importance in Taiwan while an executive share sale and weak market momentum argue for careful timing over the next few months.

Primary drivers

  • Leader in making advanced chips for AI and high-performance computing
  • Sales more than doubled compared to last year with strong profits
  • Large cash pile lowers downside risk versus higher-debt chip peers
  • News strengthens strategic position despite an executive share sale

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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