Track record · closed signal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) — closed signal from May 26, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on August 24, 2026 — -1.2% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$415.03 Published $468.12 Target $410.12 Window close $479.00 Peak
$398.53 – $414.47Entry zone — fair-value band
$415.03Published — price the day we called it
$468.12Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$479.00Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$410.12Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 27 days.

At window close
-1.2%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+15.4%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+2%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$410.12
last close inside the window, ended August 24, 2026
Peak price
$479.00
peak on June 30, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
27

The thesis — published May 26, 2026

Predicted growth
+13%
over the measurement window
Target price
$468.12
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$398.53 – $414.47
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$415.03
published May 26, 2026
Confidence
83%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

TSM is viewed as the top-quality chip manufacturer here because sales have more than doubled compared to last year, profit margins are wide, quarterly results keep surprising on the upside, and the company holds a lot of cash. Recent reports emphasize its strategic importance in Taiwan while an executive share sale and weak market momentum argue for careful timing over the next few months.

Primary drivers

  • Leader in making advanced chips for AI and high-performance computing
  • Sales more than doubled compared to last year with strong profits
  • Large cash pile lowers downside risk versus higher-debt chip peers
  • News strengthens strategic position despite an executive share sale

How it played out

TSM: target reached in 27 days

Lyra published a short-term thesis for TSM at 415.03, with 13% expected growth. The thesis pointed to leadership in advanced chips for artificial intelligence and high-performance computing, sales that had more than doubled from a year earlier, wide margins, strong quarterly results, a large cash position, and strategic importance in Taiwan.

The price reached the 468.12 target in 27 days and peaked at 479 on June 30, a 15.4% gain. It then fell and ended the window at 410.12, below the publication price. The thesis played out within the window because the target was reached, but the gain did not hold through the end.

What happened during the window

On August 10, 2026, TSMC reported July revenue of NT$467.58 billion, up 44.7% from July 2025.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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