Track record · closed signal

Amazon.com Inc (AMZN) — closed signal from May 25, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on August 23, 2026 — -2.9% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

AMZN price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$266.32 Published $303.60 Target $258.63 Window close $287.20 Peak
$258.00 – $268.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$266.32Published — price the day we called it
$303.60Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$287.20Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$258.63Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 56% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close
-2.9%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+7.8%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+3%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$258.63
last close inside the window, ended August 23, 2026
Peak price
$287.20
peak on August 3, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published May 25, 2026

Predicted growth
+14%
over the measurement window
Target price
$303.60
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$258.00 – $268.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$266.32
published May 25, 2026
Confidence
74%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Amazon combines online retail, cloud services, and advertising in a way that can lift profits as each area improves. Cloud (AWS) and advertising drive higher-margin income, while retail efficiency helps earnings. Recent AI and labor headlines show both promise for productivity and extra scrutiny on jobs and spending. Near-term signals are mixed but earnings and scale support a modest rebound case.

Primary drivers

  • AWS is a major engine for cloud and AI-related business demand
  • Advertising growth shifts sales toward higher-margin revenue
  • Gains in retail efficiency help improve overall profits
  • AI and labor headlines show both productivity upside and added scrutiny

How it played out

AMZN: rose 7.8% but missed the target

Lyra published a short-term thesis for AMZN at 266.32, expecting 14% growth toward 303.60. The thesis pointed to AWS and advertising as higher-margin engines, retail efficiency as support for profits, and productivity gains from artificial intelligence alongside scrutiny over jobs and spending.

Inside the window, AMZN rose to a peak of 287.20 on August 3, a 7.8% gain. It stayed below the 303.60 target and never reached it. By August 23, the price had fallen to 258.63, below the 266.32 publication price. The thesis partially played out because the shares rose, but the expected 14% growth did not occur.

What happened during the window

On July 30, 2026, Amazon reported that second-quarter net sales rose 20% to $200.6 billion and AWS sales rose 37% to $42.2 billion.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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