Track record · closed signal

Amazon.com Inc (AMZN) — closed signal from May 25, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on August 23, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

AMZN price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$266.32 Published $303.60 Target $258.63 Window close $287.20 Peak
$258.00 – $268.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$266.32Published — price the day we called it
$303.60Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$287.20Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$258.63Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 56% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$287.20
peak on August 3, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+7.8%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$258.63
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
May 25, 2026 – August 23, 2026

The thesis — published May 25, 2026

Predicted growth
+14%
over the measurement window
Target price
$303.60
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$258.00 – $268.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$266.32
published May 25, 2026
Confidence
74%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Amazon combines online retail, cloud services, and advertising in a way that can lift profits as each area improves. Cloud (AWS) and advertising drive higher-margin income, while retail efficiency helps earnings. Recent AI and labor headlines show both promise for productivity and extra scrutiny on jobs and spending. Near-term signals are mixed but earnings and scale support a modest rebound case.

Primary drivers

  • AWS is a major engine for cloud and AI-related business demand
  • Advertising growth shifts sales toward higher-margin revenue
  • Gains in retail efficiency help improve overall profits
  • AI and labor headlines show both productivity upside and added scrutiny

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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