Track record · closed signal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) — closed signal from May 25, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on August 23, 2026 — +3.8% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$392.55 – $408.50Entry zone — fair-value band

$403.78Published — price the day we called it

$467.52Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$479.00Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$418.95Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 28 days.

At window close

+3.8%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+18.6%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+3%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$418.95

last close inside the window, ended August 23, 2026

Peak price

$479.00

peak on June 30, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published May 25, 2026

Predicted growth

+16%

over the measurement window

Target price

$467.52

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$392.55 – $408.50

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$403.78

published May 25, 2026

Confidence

84%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

TSM is a clear way to benefit from the demand for advanced chips used in AI, fast computing and phones. The company has shown steady profit performance and a strong cash position, which helps during chip industry swings. Short-term competition or political news from Huawei adds risk, but current pullbacks look like manageable buying opportunities.

Primary drivers

Leads in the most advanced chips for AI and fast computing
Reliable profit performance over recent quarters
Large cash reserves that smooth industry swings
Huawei developments raise risk but underline TSM's advantage

How it played out

TSM: target reached in 28 days

Lyra published TSM at 403.78 with an expected gain of 16% and a target of 467.52. The thesis pointed to leadership in advanced chips for artificial intelligence and fast computing, reliable profit performance, large cash reserves, and risks tied to Huawei developments.

The price reached the target in 28 days. It peaked at 479 on June 30, a gain of 18.6%, before ending the window at 418.95. The published thesis played out within the measurement window, although the price gave back much of its rise before the end.

What happened during the window

On July 16, TSMC reported second-quarter revenue of NT$1,270.38 billion and diluted earnings per share of NT$27.25. On August 10, it reported July revenue of NT$467.58 billion, up 44.7% from July 2025.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All TSM signals