Track record · closed signal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) — closed signal from May 23, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on August 21, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$403.78 Published $471.55 Target $418.95 Window close $479.00 Peak
$390.56 – $404.51Entry zone — fair-value band
$403.78Published — price the day we called it
$471.55Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$479.00Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$418.95Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 30 days.

Peak price
$479.00
peak on June 30, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+18.6%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$418.95
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
30
Window
May 23, 2026 – August 21, 2026

The thesis — published May 23, 2026

Predicted growth
+17%
over the measurement window
Target price
$471.55
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$390.56 – $404.51
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$403.78
published May 23, 2026
Confidence
84%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Taiwan Semiconductor is the clearest way to play AI-related chip demand because its manufacturing scale, profit margins, and strong cash position make the business durable beyond short-term market moves. Recent industry news is lifting demand for data-center chip suppliers. The price action looks constructive but needs clearer follow-through, so the near-term case is around current levels to a small pullback.

Primary drivers

  • Leader in advanced chip manufacturing for AI and high-performance uses
  • Industry news pushing demand for data-center chip suppliers
  • Strong profit margins, steady earnings, and a healthy balance sheet
  • Not overbought, but recent selling pressure adds timing risk

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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