Track record · closed signal

Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) — closed signal from July 3, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 1, 2025 — +1.8% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

XOM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$109.07 Published $119.99 Target $111.02 Window close $117.33 Peak
$102.26 – $105.15Entry zone — fair-value band
$109.07Published — price the day we called it
$119.99Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$117.33Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$111.02Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 63% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close
+1.8%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+7.6%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+7.2%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$111.02
last close inside the window, ended October 1, 2025
Peak price
$117.33
peak on September 26, 2025 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published July 3, 2025

Predicted growth
+12%
over the measurement window
Target price
$119.99
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$102.26 – $105.15
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$109.07
published July 3, 2025
Confidence
70%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Big investors appear to be building positions as Exxon works toward making money even if oil falls to about $35 per barrel by 2027 and keeps building the Golden Pass gas plant. A respected stock screen gave the shares a 91% quality score and they trade at only 10 times next year’s earnings. Prices are steadier, so a dip toward early-summer levels could be a good window ahead of late-July results and Libya contract news.

Primary drivers

  • A 91% score from a well-known value test supports the idea the stock is still cheap.
  • New gas plant plus Guyana oil add steady cash, raising output roughly 6% each year.
  • Cost cuts aim to keep Exxon profitable even if oil slides to about $35 a barrel.
  • Trading shows rising interest; the price trend is turning up and may rebound soon.

How it played out

XOM: target was not reached

Lyra published XOM on 2025-07-03 at $109.07 with expected growth of 12%. The thesis pointed to big investors building positions, a 91% quality score, valuation at 10 times next year's earnings, the Golden Pass gas plant, Guyana oil, cost cuts, and a price trend that was turning up.

Inside the 2025-07-03 to 2025-10-01 window, XOM rose but did not reach $119.99. The peak was $117.33 on 2025-09-26, a 7.6% gain. It never got there. The stock ended at $111.02, above the published price but below the target. The thesis partially played out.

What happened during the window

On August 1, 2025, MarketWatch reported Exxon Mobil's second-quarter results. It said production reached 4.6 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, the company's highest second-quarter production since the Exxon and Mobil merger.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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