Track record · closed signal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) — closed signal from May 22, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on August 20, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$407.04 Published $467.24 Target $416.00 Window close $479.00 Peak
$393.55 – $408.50Entry zone — fair-value band
$407.04Published — price the day we called it
$467.24Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$479.00Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$416.00Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 31 days.

Peak price
$479.00
peak on June 30, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+17.7%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$416.00
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
31
Window
May 22, 2026 – August 20, 2026

The thesis — published May 22, 2026

Predicted growth
+15%
over the measurement window
Target price
$467.24
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$393.55 – $408.50
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$407.04
published May 22, 2026
Confidence
84%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

TSM is kept as a core short-term Technology pick because real factory work for AI chips is increasing, not just talk. New AMD news shows more chip production at TSMC, which makes factory use more visible. The company has strong sales, profits, margins, cash, and consistent earnings delivery, but technical weakness and Taiwan geopolitical exposure temper upside.

Primary drivers

  • AMD ramp shows more factory work and clearer utilization
  • Durable demand from AI and high-performance computing markets
  • Healthy profit margins, strong cash flow, and a solid balance sheet
  • Consistent earnings beats that support short-term credibility

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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