Track record · closed signal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) — closed signal from May 22, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on August 20, 2026 — +2.2% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$393.55 – $408.50Entry zone — fair-value band

$407.04Published — price the day we called it

$467.24Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$479.00Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$416.00Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 31 days.

At window close

+2.2%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+17.7%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+2.5%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$416.00

last close inside the window, ended August 20, 2026

Peak price

$479.00

peak on June 30, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published May 22, 2026

Predicted growth

+15%

over the measurement window

Target price

$467.24

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$393.55 – $408.50

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$407.04

published May 22, 2026

Confidence

84%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

TSM is kept as a core short-term Technology pick because real factory work for AI chips is increasing, not just talk. New AMD news shows more chip production at TSMC, which makes factory use more visible. The company has strong sales, profits, margins, cash, and consistent earnings delivery, but technical weakness and Taiwan geopolitical exposure temper upside.

Primary drivers

AMD ramp shows more factory work and clearer utilization
Durable demand from AI and high-performance computing markets
Healthy profit margins, strong cash flow, and a solid balance sheet
Consistent earnings beats that support short-term credibility

How it played out

TSM: target reached in 31 days

Lyra published TSM at 407.04, with an expected gain of 15%. The thesis pointed to more factory work tied to AMD, durable demand from artificial intelligence and high-performance computing, healthy margins and cash flow, a solid balance sheet, and consistent earnings beats.

TSM reached 479 on June 30, above the 467.24 target, and hit the target in 31 days. The peak gain was 17.7%. It ended the window at 416, still above the 407.04 publication price. The thesis played out in full.

What happened during the window

On July 16, TSMC reported second-quarter revenue of NT$1,270.38 billion and net income of NT$706.56 billion. On August 10, it reported July revenue of about NT$467.58 billion, up 44.7% from July 2025.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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