Track record · closed signal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) — closed signal from May 21, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on August 19, 2026 — +2.1% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$390.56 – $408.50Entry zone — fair-value band

$403.66Published — price the day we called it

$463.36Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$479.00Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$412.09Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 28 days.

At window close

+2.1%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+18.7%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+3.8%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$412.09

last close inside the window, ended August 19, 2026

Peak price

$479.00

peak on June 30, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published May 21, 2026

Predicted growth

+15%

over the measurement window

Target price

$463.36

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$390.56 – $408.50

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$403.66

published May 21, 2026

Confidence

84%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

TSM looks like the clearest short-term setup because demand for AI chips is very strong, manufacturing margins are healthy, earnings keep surprising higher, and the company has lots of cash. Recent reports that demand exceeds capacity and Google's interest improve near-term revenue clarity. Downward price pressure makes the setup selective.

Primary drivers

AI chip demand is stronger than supply, tightening capacity
Google's interest increases visibility for custom-chip work
Reliable earnings and high-margin manufacturing support profits
Large cash reserves reduce risk during industry swings

How it played out

TSM: target reached in 28 days

Lyra published TSM at 403.66 with expected growth of 15%. The thesis pointed to artificial intelligence chip demand exceeding supply, Google's interest in custom-chip work, reliable earnings, healthy manufacturing margins, and large cash reserves. It also noted downward price pressure.

The price reached the 463.36 target in 28 days. It later peaked at 479 on June 30, a gain of 18.7%. By the end of the window, it had fallen to 412.09, but remained above the publication price. The published short-term thesis played out.

What happened during the window

On July 16, 2026, TSMC reported second-quarter revenue of NT$1,270.38 billion and diluted earnings per share of NT$27.25. On August 10, 2026, it reported July revenue of NT$467.58 billion, up 44.7% from July 2025.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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