Track record · closed signal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) — closed signal from May 21, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on August 19, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$403.66 Published $463.36 Target $412.09 Window close $479.00 Peak
$390.56 – $408.50Entry zone — fair-value band
$403.66Published — price the day we called it
$463.36Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$479.00Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$412.09Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 28 days.

Peak price
$479.00
peak on June 30, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+18.7%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$412.09
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
28
Window
May 21, 2026 – August 19, 2026

The thesis — published May 21, 2026

Predicted growth
+15%
over the measurement window
Target price
$463.36
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$390.56 – $408.50
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$403.66
published May 21, 2026
Confidence
84%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

TSM looks like the clearest short-term setup because demand for AI chips is very strong, manufacturing margins are healthy, earnings keep surprising higher, and the company has lots of cash. Recent reports that demand exceeds capacity and Google's interest improve near-term revenue clarity. Downward price pressure makes the setup selective.

Primary drivers

  • AI chip demand is stronger than supply, tightening capacity
  • Google's interest increases visibility for custom-chip work
  • Reliable earnings and high-margin manufacturing support profits
  • Large cash reserves reduce risk during industry swings

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All TSM signals