Track record · closed signal

Amazon.com Inc (AMZN) — closed signal from May 20, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on August 18, 2026 — -1.3% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

AMZN price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$255.00 – $265.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$262.82Published — price the day we called it

$296.99Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$287.20Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$259.45Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 72% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

-1.3%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+9.3%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+3.8%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$259.45

last close inside the window, ended August 18, 2026

Peak price

$287.20

peak on August 3, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published May 20, 2026

Predicted growth

+13%

over the measurement window

Target price

$296.99

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$255.00 – $265.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$262.82

published May 20, 2026

Confidence

68%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Amazon is seen more as a cloud and advertising business with retail as a background activity. Hedge funds adding shares is a useful sign of renewed market interest. The stock is near short-term buying levels, but insider selling and a high valuation keep overall conviction cautious for the next few months.

Primary drivers

AWS and ad revenue make the business less dependent on retail swings
AI-driven platform scale helps sell more to big companies
Hedge funds buying signals renewed market attention for the stock
Price near short-term lows improves the near-term reward versus risk

How it played out

AMZN: rose 9.3% but missed the target

Lyra published AMZN at $262.82 with expected growth of 13%. The thesis pointed to AWS and advertising revenue, artificial intelligence-driven platform scale, hedge fund buying, and a price near short-term buying levels. Insider selling and a high valuation kept conviction cautious.

AMZN reached its window peak of $287.20 on August 3, a gain of 9.3%. It stayed below the $296.99 target, then ended the window at $259.45. The thesis partially played out, but the target was never reached.

What happened during the window

On June 1, Amazon announced that its Prime Day event would run from June 23 to June 26. On July 30, the company reported second-quarter net sales of $200.6 billion and AWS sales growth of 37%.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All AMZN signals