Track record · closed signal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) — closed signal from May 20, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on August 18, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$399.25 Published $462.27 Target $413.41 Window close $479.00 Peak
$388.57 – $403.51Entry zone — fair-value band
$399.25Published — price the day we called it
$462.27Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$479.00Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$413.41Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 29 days.

Peak price
$479.00
peak on June 30, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+20%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$413.41
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
29
Window
May 20, 2026 – August 18, 2026

The thesis — published May 20, 2026

Predicted growth
+16%
over the measurement window
Target price
$462.27
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$388.57 – $403.51
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$399.25
published May 20, 2026
Confidence
82%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

TSM stands out because steady demand for AI chips keeps its factories busy, profit margins are healthy, the company has a strong balance sheet, and earnings have been steady. Recent reports about big factory spending and dividend moves underline capital needs and shareholder payback. The price pulled back near short-term support, so the near-term outlook looks constructive but still carries risk.

Primary drivers

  • Growing demand for AI chips keeps advanced factories busy
  • Healthy profits and a strong balance sheet support stability
  • Regular, steady earnings show predictable performance
  • Dividend news signals shareholder-return priorities

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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