Track record · closed signal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) — closed signal from May 20, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on August 18, 2026 — +3.5% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$388.57 – $403.51Entry zone — fair-value band

$399.25Published — price the day we called it

$462.27Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$479.00Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$413.41Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 29 days.

At window close

+3.5%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+20%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+3.8%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$413.41

last close inside the window, ended August 18, 2026

Peak price

$479.00

peak on June 30, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published May 20, 2026

Predicted growth

+16%

over the measurement window

Target price

$462.27

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$388.57 – $403.51

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$399.25

published May 20, 2026

Confidence

82%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

TSM stands out because steady demand for AI chips keeps its factories busy, profit margins are healthy, the company has a strong balance sheet, and earnings have been steady. Recent reports about big factory spending and dividend moves underline capital needs and shareholder payback. The price pulled back near short-term support, so the near-term outlook looks constructive but still carries risk.

Primary drivers

Growing demand for AI chips keeps advanced factories busy
Healthy profits and a strong balance sheet support stability
Regular, steady earnings show predictable performance
Dividend news signals shareholder-return priorities

How it played out

TSM: target reached in 29 days

Lyra published a 16% short-term growth thesis at 399.25. The thesis pointed to demand for artificial intelligence chips, healthy profits, a strong balance sheet, steady earnings, and dividend news. It also noted that the price had pulled back near short-term support and that the setup still carried risk.

The shares reached the 462.27 target in 29 days. They peaked at 479 on June 30, a 20% gain, before ending the window at 413.41. The price finished below the target, but the published thesis played out within the window.