Track record · closed signal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) — closed signal from May 19, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on August 17, 2026 — +10.1% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$378.61 – $395.54Entry zone — fair-value band

$391.47Published — price the day we called it

$461.09Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$479.00Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$430.97Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 30 days.

At window close

+10.1%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+22.4%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+5.6%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$430.97

last close inside the window, ended August 17, 2026

Peak price

$479.00

peak on June 30, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published May 19, 2026

Predicted growth

+18%

over the measurement window

Target price

$461.09

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$378.61 – $395.54

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$391.47

published May 19, 2026

Confidence

82%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

We see TSM as a relatively stable way to play demand for advanced chips used in AI and other fast-growing areas. Strong cash and steady earnings help during industry weakness, and recent news about new design tools deepens the ecosystem. Key downsides are intense sector competition and geopolitical tensions that can affect supply or customers.

Primary drivers

Higher demand for advanced chip manufacturing for AI
Steady earnings even when the chip sector is weak
Solid balance sheet and supportive insider signals
New process tools and partners deepen TSMC's edge

How it played out

TSM: target reached in 30 days

Lyra published TSM at $391.47 with an 18% expected gain and a $461.09 target. The thesis pointed to demand for advanced chip manufacturing used in artificial intelligence, steady earnings during sector weakness, a solid balance sheet, supportive insider signals, and new process tools and partners. It also cited competition and geopolitical tensions as risks.

TSM reached the target in 30 days and later peaked at $479 on June 30, a 22.4% gain. It ended the window at $430.97, below both the peak and target but above the publication price. The core price thesis played out within the stated window. The later pullback did not erase that result.

What happened during the window

On July 16, TSMC reported second-quarter revenue of NT$1,270.38 billion and net income of NT$706.56 billion. On August 10, it reported July revenue of NT$467.58 billion, up 44.7% from July 2025.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All TSM signals