Track record · closed signal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) — closed signal from May 19, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on August 17, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$391.47 Published $461.09 Target $430.97 Window close $479.00 Peak
$378.61 – $395.54Entry zone — fair-value band
$391.47Published — price the day we called it
$461.09Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$479.00Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$430.97Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 30 days.

Peak price
$479.00
peak on June 30, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+22.4%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$430.97
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
30
Window
May 19, 2026 – August 17, 2026

The thesis — published May 19, 2026

Predicted growth
+18%
over the measurement window
Target price
$461.09
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$378.61 – $395.54
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$391.47
published May 19, 2026
Confidence
82%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

We see TSM as a relatively stable way to play demand for advanced chips used in AI and other fast-growing areas. Strong cash and steady earnings help during industry weakness, and recent news about new design tools deepens the ecosystem. Key downsides are intense sector competition and geopolitical tensions that can affect supply or customers.

Primary drivers

  • Higher demand for advanced chip manufacturing for AI
  • Steady earnings even when the chip sector is weak
  • Solid balance sheet and supportive insider signals
  • New process tools and partners deepen TSMC's edge

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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