Track record · closed signal

Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) — closed signal from August 10, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 8, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

XOM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$104.90 Published $115.39 Target $116.20 Window close $117.33 Peak
$101.78 – $103.70Entry zone — fair-value band
$104.90Published — price the day we called it
$115.39Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$117.33Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$116.20Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Hit or exceeded the predicted growth inside the window.

Peak price
$117.33
peak on September 26, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+11.9%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$116.20
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
August 10, 2025 – November 8, 2025

The thesis — published August 10, 2025

Predicted growth
+12%
over the measurement window
Target price
$115.39
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$101.78 – $103.70
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$104.90
published August 10, 2025
Confidence
70%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Exxon Mobil could be a steady rebound idea that also pays income. A $0.99 dividend (about a 3.7% yearly payout) is planned. It earned $7.1B last quarter and sent $9.2B back to shareholders. The stock looks beaten down but investor mood is still positive. If the price moves back above its recent average price and oil stays calm, shares could recover in 0-3 months.

Primary drivers

  • Pays $0.99 per share, about a 3.7% yearly payout to investors, paid quarterly.
  • Last quarter profit was $7.1B; $9.2B was returned to shareholders.
  • Shares look beaten down, while investor mood remains generally positive.
  • Stable oil prices would help the stock bounce and hold gains in the near term.

How it played out

XOM: rebound came close to the 12% thesis

Lyra published XOM as a short-term rebound idea on 2025-08-10 at $104.90. The thesis expected 12% growth over 0-3 months. It pointed to a planned $0.99 dividend, about a 3.7% yearly payout, $7.1B in last-quarter profit, $9.2B returned to shareholders, beaten-down shares, positive investor mood, and stable oil prices as supports.

Inside the window, XOM rose to a $117.33 peak on 2025-09-26. The recorded peak gain was 11.9%, just under the 12% thesis. It ended the window at $116.20. The rebound mostly played out, but it did not fully meet the published growth expectation.

What happened during the window

On 2025-10-31, Exxon Mobil reported third-quarter earnings of $7.55 billion, or $1.76 per share. Revenue was $85.29 billion. The same report said third-quarter net production was 4.7 million oil-equivalent barrels per day, with Guyana production above 700,000 barrels per day.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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