Track record · closed signal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) — closed signal from May 18, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on August 16, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$399.79 Published $462.91 Target $426.35 Window close $479.00 Peak
$386.58 – $403.51Entry zone — fair-value band
$399.79Published — price the day we called it
$462.91Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$479.00Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$426.35Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 31 days.

Peak price
$479.00
peak on June 30, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+19.8%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$426.35
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
31
Window
May 18, 2026 – August 16, 2026

The thesis — published May 18, 2026

Predicted growth
+16%
over the measurement window
Target price
$462.91
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$386.58 – $403.51
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$399.79
published May 18, 2026
Confidence
83%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

TSM stands out because many customers need advanced chips for AI and high-performance tasks, and the company shows consistent profit margins and a solid cash position. New guidance suggests demand for advanced chips should hold up. A recent price pullback makes the setup less crowded. Main risks are weak price momentum and geopolitical exposure to Taiwan.

Primary drivers

  • Rising AI chip orders give clear near-term sales visibility
  • Latest guidance confirms continued demand for advanced chips
  • Healthy cash and profits help the company handle downturns
  • Recent pullback creates a more cautious, disciplined entry opportunity

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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