Track record · closed signal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) — closed signal from May 18, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on August 16, 2026 — +6.6% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$386.58 – $403.51Entry zone — fair-value band

$399.79Published — price the day we called it

$462.91Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$479.00Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$426.35Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 31 days.

At window close

+6.6%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+19.8%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+5.4%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$426.35

last close inside the window, ended August 16, 2026

Peak price

$479.00

peak on June 30, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published May 18, 2026

Predicted growth

+16%

over the measurement window

Target price

$462.91

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$386.58 – $403.51

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$399.79

published May 18, 2026

Confidence

83%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

TSM stands out because many customers need advanced chips for AI and high-performance tasks, and the company shows consistent profit margins and a solid cash position. New guidance suggests demand for advanced chips should hold up. A recent price pullback makes the setup less crowded. Main risks are weak price momentum and geopolitical exposure to Taiwan.

Primary drivers

Rising AI chip orders give clear near-term sales visibility
Latest guidance confirms continued demand for advanced chips
Healthy cash and profits help the company handle downturns
Recent pullback creates a more cautious, disciplined entry opportunity

How it played out

TSM: target reached in 31 days

Lyra published TSM at 399.79, expecting a 16% rise toward 462.91. The thesis pointed to rising chip orders tied to artificial intelligence and high-performance computing, guidance for continued advanced-chip demand, healthy cash and profits, and a recent pullback that offered a more cautious entry.

The price reached 462.91 and hit the target in 31 days. It later peaked at 479 on 2026-06-30, a 19.8% gain, before ending the window at 426.35. The expected move played out fully within the measurement window, although the closing price was below both the target and the peak.

What happened during the window

On July 16, 2026, TSMC reported second-quarter revenue of NT$1,270.38 billion and diluted earnings per share of NT$27.25. On August 10, 2026, it reported July revenue of NT$467.58 billion, up 44.7% from July 2025.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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