Track record · closed signal

Vista Oil Gas ADR (VIST) — closed signal from May 15, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on August 13, 2026 — -8.9% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

VIST price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$72.69 Published $84.32 Target $66.19 Window close $81.44 Peak
$68.00 – $73.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$72.69Published — price the day we called it
$84.32Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$81.44Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$66.19Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 75% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close
-8.9%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+12%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+5.5%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$66.19
last close inside the window, ended August 13, 2026
Peak price
$81.44
peak on May 20, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published May 15, 2026

Predicted growth
+16%
over the measurement window
Target price
$84.32
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$68.00 – $73.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$72.69
published May 15, 2026
Confidence
70%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Vista is a higher-risk oil and gas rebound driven by improving cash flow and better earnings estimates. Strong production and rising cash flows make a case for a higher stock rating, but the shares are not cheap and risks from commodity prices, company debt, low trading volume and Argentina ADR exposure keep conviction limited for the next few months.

Primary drivers

  • Stronger cash flow makes investors rethink the stocks value
  • Big production foothold in Vaca Muerta supports growth in output
  • Relatively low price helps balance swings in oil and gas income
  • Argentina ADR status, debt and low volume require smaller sizing

How it played out

VIST: the target was missed after a 12% peak gain

Lyra published VIST at $72.69 with expected growth of 16% over the short-term window. The thesis pointed to stronger cash flow, better earnings estimates, Vaca Muerta production, and a relatively low share price. It also flagged commodity prices, debt, low trading volume, and Argentina ADR exposure as risks.

VIST reached its window peak of $81.44 on May 20, a gain of 12%. That stayed below the $84.32 target, which was never reached. The shares ended the window at $66.19 on August 13. The thesis partially played out early, but the expected gain did not hold and the target was missed.

What happened during the window

On July 16, 2026, Vista reported average net daily production of 156,061 boe/d for the second quarter, up 32% from the same quarter in 2025. It also reported quarter-end cash of $604.7 million.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All VIST signals