Track record · closed signal

Vista Oil Gas ADR (VIST) — closed signal from May 14, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on August 12, 2026 — -4% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

VIST price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$65.00 – $70.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$68.75Published — price the day we called it

$80.43Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$81.44Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$66.01Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 6 days.

At window close

-4%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+18.5%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+3.5%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$66.01

last close inside the window, ended August 12, 2026

Peak price

$81.44

peak on May 20, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published May 14, 2026

Predicted growth

+17%

over the measurement window

Target price

$80.43

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$65.00 – $70.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$68.75

published May 14, 2026

Confidence

71%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Vista offers the biggest upside in the group but comes with higher risk. New guidance points to stronger sales and the stock is trading above its medium-term trend, helped by higher oil prices. The shares look cheap for expected growth, but exposure to the country, local currency and oil prices makes the near-term outlook cautious and tactical.

Primary drivers

Sales tied to oil were revised higher, boosting growth expectations
Trading above the medium-term trend suggests near-term strength
Relatively low valuation could re-rate if oil remains firm
Production growth helps offset country and balance sheet concerns

How it played out

VIST: target reached in 6 days

Lyra published VIST at $68.75 with expected growth of 17% and a target of $80.43. The thesis pointed to higher sales tied to oil, trading above the medium-term trend, a relatively low valuation, and production growth. It also noted country, currency, balance-sheet, and oil-price risks.

The shares reached $81.44 on May 20, a peak gain of 18.5%. That cleared the target in 6 days. By August 12, the price had fallen to $66.01. The short-term thesis played out because the target was reached, although the gain did not last through the end of the window.

What happened during the window

On July 16, 2026, Vista reported second-quarter production of 156,061 barrels of oil equivalent per day, up 16% from the first quarter and 32% from the prior-year quarter.

Vista Energy second-quarter 2026 results

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All VIST signals