Track record · closed signal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) — closed signal from May 14, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on August 12, 2026 — +4.5% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$410.83 Published $459.29 Target $429.15 Window close $479.00 Peak
$393.55 – $413.48Entry zone — fair-value band
$410.83Published — price the day we called it
$459.29Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$479.00Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$429.15Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 35 days.

At window close
+4.5%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+16.6%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+3.5%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$429.15
last close inside the window, ended August 12, 2026
Peak price
$479.00
peak on June 30, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
35

The thesis — published May 14, 2026

Predicted growth
+12%
over the measurement window
Target price
$459.29
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$393.55 – $413.48
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$410.83
published May 14, 2026
Confidence
84%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

TSMC stands out because it makes the advanced chips that AI and high-performance computers need, and it has a strong financial position. New factory and packaging plans back up a clear capacity-driven growth story. Short-term price action is mixed, but the recent dip gives a clearer short-term buying window if demand for advanced chips remains solid.

Primary drivers

  • Growing AI and high-performance computing needs lift demand for advanced chips
  • Planned new fabs and packaging expand manufacturing capacity
  • Healthy profit margins and a strong balance sheet reduce downside risk
  • Solid recent earnings show management is executing plans effectively

How it played out

TSM: target reached in 35 days

On May 14, Lyra published TSM at $410.83 with expected growth of 12% and a target of $459.29. The thesis pointed to demand for advanced chips from artificial intelligence and high-performance computing, planned factory and packaging capacity, healthy margins, a strong balance sheet, and solid recent earnings.

The price reached the target after 35 days. It later peaked at $479 on June 30, a gain of 16.6%. By the end of the window on August 12, it had fallen to $429.15, below the target but above the publication price. The thesis played out within the window.

What happened during the window

On July 16, TSMC reported second-quarter revenue of NT$1,270.38 billion and earnings per share of NT$27.25. On August 10, it reported July revenue of NT$467.58 billion, up 44.7% from July 2025.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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