Track record · closed signal

Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) — closed signal from August 10, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 8, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSLA price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$329.65 Published $412.06 Target $429.52 Window close $474.07 Peak
$325.00 – $332.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$329.65Published — price the day we called it
$412.06Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$474.07Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$429.52Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 36 days.

Peak price
$474.07
peak on November 3, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+43.8%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$429.52
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
36
Window
August 10, 2025 – November 8, 2025

The thesis — published August 10, 2025

Predicted growth
+25%
over the measurement window
Target price
$412.06
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$325.00 – $332.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$329.65
published August 10, 2025
Confidence
64%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Tesla's price action is improving again. There was no company-specific news this week, but the broader market is friendly to fast-moving stocks, and investors are more willing to buy names like this. Buying momentum looks stronger, yet the company's results have not fully caught up with the optimism. If it can finish a day above a key price level, a 0-3 month move higher is possible, but careful risk control still matters.

Primary drivers

  • Stronger buying trend, with more demand than selling in recent trading
  • Market currently rewards faster-moving stocks, which helps Tesla today
  • Overall market mood is positive, which can lift growth-focused shares
  • Shares look expensive, so a strict plan for cutting losses is important

How it played out

TSLA: target reached in 36 days

Lyra published TSLA at $329.65 on 2025-08-10 with a short-term thesis for 25% growth toward $412.06. The thesis pointed to stronger buying momentum, a market that was rewarding faster-moving stocks, positive overall market mood, and an expensive share price that required strict loss control.

Inside the window, TSLA reached the target in 36 days. The stock later peaked at $474.07 on 2025-11-03, a 43.8% gain. It ended the window at $429.52, still above the target. The thesis played out, and the move went beyond the published target.

What happened during the window

On October 7, 2025, Tesla introduced lower-priced Model Y Standard and Model 3 Standard versions. On October 22, 2025, Tesla reported third-quarter results, including record revenue and adjusted earnings per share that missed analyst expectations.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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