Track record · closed signal

AppLovin Corp (APP) — closed signal from May 12, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on August 10, 2026 — -30.4% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

APP price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$487.31 Published $584.77 Target $339.00 Window close $622.00 Peak
$455.00 – $490.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$487.31Published — price the day we called it
$584.77Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$622.00Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$339.00Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 16 days.

At window close
-30.4%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+27.6%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+5%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$339.00
last close inside the window, ended August 10, 2026
Peak price
$622.00
peak on June 1, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
16

The thesis — published May 12, 2026

Predicted growth
+20%
over the measurement window
Target price
$584.77
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$455.00 – $490.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$487.31
published May 12, 2026
Confidence
70%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

AppLovin looks like a growing software business that uses AI to sell and manage mobile ads. It is profitable and recent results led analysts to raise revenue and earnings forecasts, which supports the growth story. The price has moved up and sits above short-term trend support, so the reward-versus-risk is less clean; insider selling lowers top-tier conviction.

Primary drivers

  • AI ad platform improving efficiency and margins
  • Analyst forecasts were raised after recent results
  • Strong profit levels justify higher-growth valuation
  • Price momentum is constructive but sensitive to pullbacks

How it played out

APP: target reached in 16 days

Lyra published APP at $487.31 with expected growth of 20% and a target of $584.77. The thesis pointed to an artificial intelligence ad platform, raised analyst forecasts, strong profit levels, and constructive price momentum. It also noted sensitivity to pullbacks and insider selling.

APP reached the target after 16 days. The price peaked at $622 on June 1, a gain of 27.6%. It later fell and ended the window at $339. The thesis played out within the window because the target was reached, but the gain did not hold through the end.

What happened during the window

On August 5, 2026, AppLovin reported second-quarter revenue of $1,924 million and net income of $1,267 million. The company also reported $863.3 million in free cash flow for the quarter.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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