Track record · closed signal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) — closed signal from May 12, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on August 10, 2026 — +4.8% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$386.58 – $403.51Entry zone — fair-value band

$399.27Published — price the day we called it

$466.28Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$479.00Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$418.47Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 41 days.

At window close

+4.8%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+20%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+5%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$418.47

last close inside the window, ended August 10, 2026

Peak price

$479.00

peak on June 30, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published May 12, 2026

Predicted growth

+17%

over the measurement window

Target price

$466.28

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$386.58 – $403.51

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$399.27

published May 12, 2026

Confidence

84%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

TSM is well positioned to supply the chips needed for AI work. It combines top manufacturing know-how, improving sales and healthy profits with more cash than debt. A recent tie-up with Applied Materials strengthens its role in making AI chip processes work better. The stock looks stable near $400; main worry is geopolitical tension.

Primary drivers

Leader in chip manufacturing for growing AI demand
Deal with Applied Materials helps production steps fit together
High profit margins and a strong cash position
Price action looks reasonable without extreme stretch

How it played out

TSM: target reached in 41 days

On May 12, 2026, Lyra published a thesis for a 17% rise from 399.27 toward 466.28. The thesis pointed to leadership in chip manufacturing for artificial intelligence demand, an Applied Materials tie-up, healthy profit margins and more cash than debt. It cited geopolitical tension as the main risk.

The market reached the 466.28 target in 41 days. TSM peaked at 479 on June 30, a 20% gain. It later fell and ended the window at 418.47 on August 10. The published thesis played out.

What happened during the window

On July 16, 2026, TSMC reported second-quarter revenue of NT$1,270.38 billion and net income of NT$706.56 billion. On August 10, 2026, it reported July revenue of NT$467.58 billion, up 44.7% from July 2025.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All TSM signals