Track record · closed signal

XP Inc. (XP) — closed signal from May 8, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on August 6, 2026 — -11.7% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

XP price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$17.93 – $18.91Entry zone — fair-value band

$18.89Published — price the day we called it

$21.25Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$19.11Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$16.68Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 9% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

-11.7%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+1.2%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+4.5%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$16.68

last close inside the window, ended August 6, 2026

Peak price

$19.11

peak on May 8, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published May 8, 2026

Predicted growth

+14%

over the measurement window

Target price

$21.25

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$17.93 – $18.91

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$18.89

published May 8, 2026

Confidence

68%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

XP recently announced higher reported earnings, a new dividend, share buybacks and retirement of treasury shares - moves that improve returns to shareholders and could lead to higher valuation if investors regain confidence in Brazil. Still, the company carries significant debt, faces fee competition, and had an unusual recent earnings report, so confidence in a quick rise over the next 0-3 months is limited.

Primary drivers

Dividend and buybacks boost shareholder returns
Retiring treasury shares strengthens the return story
Institutional interest adds credibility to the stock
Overall Brazil sentiment will dictate near-term performance

How it played out

XP: the 14% growth thesis missed

Lyra published a short-term thesis for XP at 18.89, expecting 14% growth toward 21.25. The thesis pointed to higher reported earnings, a new dividend, share buybacks, retired treasury shares, institutional interest, and Brazil sentiment. It also noted debt, fee competition, and an unusual recent earnings report.

XP peaked at 19.11 on May 8, a 1.2% gain. That was the first day of the window, and the price never reached 21.25. It ended at 16.68 on August 6, below the 18.89 publication price. The thesis missed within the measured window.

What happened during the window

On May 18, 2026, XP reported first-quarter gross revenue of R$4,919 million and adjusted net income of R$1,318 million.

XP Inc. 1Q26 earnings release

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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