Track record · closed signal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) — closed signal from May 6, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on August 4, 2026 — +1% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$412.92 Published $461.62 Target $417.17 Window close $479.00 Peak
$400.52 – $414.47Entry zone — fair-value band
$412.92Published — price the day we called it
$461.62Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$479.00Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$417.17Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 43 days.

At window close
+1%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+16%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+5.4%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$417.17
last close inside the window, ended August 4, 2026
Peak price
$479.00
peak on June 30, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
43

The thesis — published May 6, 2026

Predicted growth
+12%
over the measurement window
Target price
$461.62
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$400.52 – $414.47
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$412.92
published May 6, 2026
Confidence
82%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

TSM is the clearest way to own the chip-manufacturing trend tied to AI and other fast-growing tech needs. Strong earnings and a healthy balance sheet mean it can ride higher demand. Samsung and Apple updates point to tight factory capacity. Geopolitical risk and the stock already running high mean caution is still warranted.

Primary drivers

  • Large, broad demand for advanced chips used in AI and high-performance tasks
  • Samsung's strong chip results show increased market appetite for AI silicon
  • Apple looking for more production points to limited manufacturing capacity
  • Solid balance sheet and steady execution justify a premium position

How it played out

TSM: target reached in 43 days

Lyra published TSM at 412.92, with 12% expected growth. The thesis pointed to broad demand for advanced chips used in artificial intelligence and high-performance computing, strong earnings and a healthy balance sheet. It also cited Samsung's chip results and Apple's search for more production as signs of tight manufacturing capacity.

During the window, TSM reached the 461.62 target in 43 days. It peaked at 479 on June 30, a 16% gain, then ended the window at 417.17. The published price was 412.92. The target was reached, although the stock gave back most of its rise by the end. The thesis played out.

What happened during the window

On July 16, 2026, TSMC reported second-quarter revenue of NT$1,270.38 billion and net income of NT$706.56 billion. Revenue rose 36.0% from the prior year.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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