Chart Industries Inc. (GTLS) — closed signal from July 30, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 28, 2025 — +0.4% at the close.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 14% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published July 30, 2025
Chart's stock jumped 16% after energy giant Baker Hughes offered to buy the company for cash and shares worth about $211 each. The shares have slipped back to around $198 as traders pause after the big jump. History shows prices often drift halfway back before climbing again. If the deal is approved, the price should move toward $211 within roughly three months, but official reviews could cause waves.
Primary drivers
- $13.6B bid from Baker Hughes gives a clear target near $211 a share.
- Prices often return halfway after a jump before heading higher again.
- Expected cost savings could boost how much the deal is seen as worth.
- Closing the deal may put the stock in big indexes, forcing fund buying.
How it played out
GTLS: target was not reached
Lyra published GTLS at $198.80 on July 30, 2025, with 8% expected growth over a short-term window. The thesis pointed to Baker Hughes' bid, a clear target near $211 a share, a possible halfway drift after the jump, expected cost savings, and possible index-related buying if the deal closed.
Inside the window, GTLS peaked at $200.94 on October 2, 2025, with a 1.1% gain. It stayed below the $214.70 target and ended at $199.65 on October 28, 2025. The stock rose a little, but the published thesis did not reach its price target.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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