Track record · closed signal

AppLovin Corp (APP) — closed signal from May 5, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on August 3, 2026 — -15.1% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

APP price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$478.43 Published $564.54 Target $406.16 Window close $622.00 Peak
$455.00 – $480.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$478.43Published — price the day we called it
$564.54Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$622.00Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$406.16Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 22 days.

At window close
-15.1%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+30%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+5%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$406.16
last close inside the window, ended August 3, 2026
Peak price
$622.00
peak on June 1, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
22

The thesis — published May 5, 2026

Predicted growth
+18%
over the measurement window
Target price
$564.54
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$455.00 – $480.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$478.43
published May 5, 2026
Confidence
66%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

AppLovin shows strong business momentum and rising demand for ads tied to AI, and insiders own a meaningful stake. However the stock price is extended and upcoming earnings could cause volatility; insider trades are mixed. The shorter-term opportunity looks better if the price falls back a bit, since current timing is less favorable than the company's trend.

Primary drivers

  • Stronger demand for ads using AI-related products and services
  • Recent news suggests the market sees more value in the company
  • Significant insider ownership aligns management and shareholders
  • Timing depends on a price pullback; current level is extended

How it played out

APP: target exceeded in 22 days

On May 5, Lyra published a short-term thesis for 18% growth from $478.43, with a $564.54 target. The thesis pointed to stronger demand for ads tied to artificial intelligence products, greater market recognition, and insider ownership. It also said the price was extended and that timing depended on a pullback.

The price reached the target within 22 days and rose to a $622 peak on June 1, a 30% gain. It then fell and ended the window at $406.16. The published target was exceeded, so the thesis played out within the measurement window, despite the lower closing price.

What happened during the window

On May 6, AppLovin reported first-quarter revenue of $1,842 million and net income of $1,206 million.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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