Track record · closed signal

XP Inc. (XP) — closed signal from May 5, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on August 3, 2026 — -8.5% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

XP price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$17.35 – $18.52Entry zone — fair-value band

$18.61Published — price the day we called it

$22.05Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$19.63Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$17.03Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 28% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

-8.5%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+5.5%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+5%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$17.03

last close inside the window, ended August 3, 2026

Peak price

$19.63

peak on May 6, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published May 5, 2026

Predicted growth

+20%

over the measurement window

Target price

$22.05

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$17.35 – $18.52

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$18.61

published May 5, 2026

Confidence

72%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

XP looks like a value play after a mix of good news: audited profits improved, the company paid a cash dividend and bought back shares, and big institutional investors hold meaningful positions. Strong profitability and a low price relative to earnings support a rebound case, but Brazil's economic and currency risks mean a cautious stance.

Primary drivers

Returning cash to shareholders through dividends and buybacks
Shares trade cheaply relative to profits and show solid margins
Large institutional owners add credibility to the story
Price looks beaten up after the report, offering a reset chance

How it played out

XP: the 20% rebound thesis missed

Lyra published a short-term rebound thesis on May 5, 2026. It expected 20% growth from an $18.61 publication price. The thesis pointed to dividends and buybacks, a low valuation relative to profits, solid margins, large institutional owners, and a beaten-up share price as support for a reset.

XP peaked at $19.63 on May 6, a 5.5% gain. It stayed below the $22.05 target throughout the window and ended at $17.03 on August 3. The expected rebound did not play out.

What happened during the window

On May 6, 2026, XP said it would report first-quarter results. On May 18, 2026, the company released those results.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All XP signals