Track record · closed signal

Vista Oil Gas ADR (VIST) — closed signal from May 4, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on August 2, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

VIST price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$73.52 Published $86.02 Target $70.45 Window close $81.44 Peak
$70.00 – $74.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$73.52Published — price the day we called it
$86.02Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$81.44Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$70.45Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 64% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$81.44
peak on May 20, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+10.8%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$70.45
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
May 4, 2026 – August 2, 2026

The thesis — published May 4, 2026

Predicted growth
+17%
over the measurement window
Target price
$86.02
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$70.00 – $74.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$73.52
published May 4, 2026
Confidence
72%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Vista reported strong operating progress: record production, higher revenue and raised guidance for 2026, which supports the story that growth in Argentina's Vaca Muerta is real. Offsets are clear: the company burned cash, has noticeable debt and operates in a risky country environment. Trading is light, so further gains likely depend on stronger oil prices and clearer volume support.

Primary drivers

  • Record Q1 output confirms operational momentum
  • Raised 2026 targets strengthen the outlook
  • Vaca Muerta exposure links gains to oil price upside
  • Negative cash flow and country risk reduce conviction

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All VIST signals