Track record · closed signal

Vista Oil Gas ADR (VIST) — closed signal from May 4, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on August 2, 2026 — -4.2% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

VIST price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$70.00 – $74.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$73.52Published — price the day we called it

$86.02Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$81.44Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$70.45Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 64% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

-4.2%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+10.8%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+4.3%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$70.45

last close inside the window, ended August 2, 2026

Peak price

$81.44

peak on May 20, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published May 4, 2026

Predicted growth

+17%

over the measurement window

Target price

$86.02

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$70.00 – $74.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$73.52

published May 4, 2026

Confidence

72%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Vista reported strong operating progress: record production, higher revenue and raised guidance for 2026, which supports the story that growth in Argentina's Vaca Muerta is real. Offsets are clear: the company burned cash, has noticeable debt and operates in a risky country environment. Trading is light, so further gains likely depend on stronger oil prices and clearer volume support.

Primary drivers

Record Q1 output confirms operational momentum
Raised 2026 targets strengthen the outlook
Vaca Muerta exposure links gains to oil price upside
Negative cash flow and country risk reduce conviction

How it played out

VIST: the thesis partially played out, but missed the target

Lyra published a short-term thesis for VIST at 73.52, expecting 17% growth toward 86.02. The thesis pointed to record Q1 output, higher revenue, raised 2026 targets, and Vaca Muerta exposure. It also cited negative cash flow, debt, country risk, light trading, and dependence on oil prices and volume support.

From May 4, VIST rose to 81.44 on May 20, a 10.8% peak gain. It stayed below the 86.02 target and never reached it. By August 2, the price had fallen to 70.45, below the 73.52 publication price but within the 70 to 74 entry zone. The thesis partially played out because the shares rose, but the expected gain did not hold.

What happened during the window

On May 7, Vista said it completed its acquisition of interests in the Bandurria Sur and Bajo del Toro blocks. On July 16, the company reported its Q2 2026 financial and operating results.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All VIST signals