Track record · closed signal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) — closed signal from May 4, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on August 2, 2026 — +0.2% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$390.56 – $403.51Entry zone — fair-value band

$403.31Published — price the day we called it

$462.95Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$479.00Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$404.25Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 45 days.

At window close

+0.2%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+18.8%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+4.3%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$404.25

last close inside the window, ended August 2, 2026

Peak price

$479.00

peak on June 30, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published May 4, 2026

Predicted growth

+15%

over the measurement window

Target price

$462.95

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$390.56 – $403.51

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$403.31

published May 4, 2026

Confidence

84%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

TSM is viewed as a top supplier of chips used in AI and high-performance computing. Recent reports show supply tightness at advanced factories, strong first-quarter sales growth, and a higher growth forecast for 2026. The company's cash position and repeated earnings beats add comfort. Upside depends on continued AI spending and stable geopolitics.

Primary drivers

Strong position supplying advanced chips for AI and high-performance computing
Solid Q1 sales and an upgraded 2026 growth outlook from management
Consistent profits and repeated quarterly earnings beats
Large cash balance that reduces financial pressure in downturns

How it played out

TSM: target reached in 45 days

On May 4, Lyra published a short-term thesis at 403.31 and expected 15% growth. The thesis pointed to demand for advanced chips used in artificial intelligence and high-performance computing, solid first-quarter sales, management's upgraded 2026 growth outlook, repeated earnings beats, consistent profits, and a large cash balance.

The price reached the 462.95 target in 45 days. It peaked at 479 on June 30, an 18.8% gain, before ending the window at 404.25. The published thesis played out within the measurement window, although most of the gain had faded by the end.

What happened during the window

On May 8, TSMC reported April revenue of NT$410.73 billion, up 17.5% from April 2025. On July 16, it reported second-quarter revenue of NT$1,270.38 billion and diluted earnings per share of NT$27.25.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All TSM signals