Track record · closed signal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) — closed signal from May 4, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on August 2, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$403.31 Published $462.95 Target $404.25 Window close $479.00 Peak
$390.56 – $403.51Entry zone — fair-value band
$403.31Published — price the day we called it
$462.95Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$479.00Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$404.25Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 45 days.

Peak price
$479.00
peak on June 30, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+18.8%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$404.25
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
45
Window
May 4, 2026 – August 2, 2026

The thesis — published May 4, 2026

Predicted growth
+15%
over the measurement window
Target price
$462.95
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$390.56 – $403.51
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$403.31
published May 4, 2026
Confidence
84%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

TSM is viewed as a top supplier of chips used in AI and high-performance computing. Recent reports show supply tightness at advanced factories, strong first-quarter sales growth, and a higher growth forecast for 2026. The company's cash position and repeated earnings beats add comfort. Upside depends on continued AI spending and stable geopolitics.

Primary drivers

  • Strong position supplying advanced chips for AI and high-performance computing
  • Solid Q1 sales and an upgraded 2026 growth outlook from management
  • Consistent profits and repeated quarterly earnings beats
  • Large cash balance that reduces financial pressure in downturns

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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