Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. (TSM) — closed signal from July 30, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 28, 2025 — +25.3% at the close.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 64 days.
The thesis — published July 30, 2025
TSMC’s sales jumped 44% and hit a new record, but worries about the world economy pushed the share price down to a bargain zone. Chips used for AI now bring in 60% of its money and the company is spending more to keep up. The stock is trading near $240, a level where big funds often buy, and industry chatter says urgent new orders could lift the price toward $295 within three months.
Primary drivers
- Sales rose 44% and AI chips now bring in 60% of revenue
- Price looks unusually low where large investors tend to buy
- Sources report rush orders, hinting at higher sales soon
- US factory and government aid reduce political supply risks
How it played out
TSM: target reached in 64 days
Lyra published TSM at $239.92 on 2025-07-30 for a short-term window ending 2025-10-28. The thesis expected 22% growth. It pointed to sales up 44%, chips used for artificial intelligence at 60% of revenue, a price near $240 where large investors often buy, reported rush orders, and U.S. factory support reducing supply risk.
Inside the window, TSM reached the $291 target in 64 days. The stock later peaked at $310.53 on 2025-10-16, with a 29.4% gain. It ended the window at $300.72. The thesis played out.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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