Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. (TSM) — closed signal from July 30, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 28, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 64 days.
The thesis — published July 30, 2025
TSMC’s sales jumped 44% and hit a new record, but worries about the world economy pushed the share price down to a bargain zone. Chips used for AI now bring in 60% of its money and the company is spending more to keep up. The stock is trading near $240, a level where big funds often buy, and industry chatter says urgent new orders could lift the price toward $295 within three months.
Primary drivers
- Sales rose 44% and AI chips now bring in 60% of revenue
- Price looks unusually low where large investors tend to buy
- Sources report rush orders, hinting at higher sales soon
- US factory and government aid reduce political supply risks
How it played out
TSM: target reached in 64 days
Lyra published TSM at $239.92 on 2025-07-30 for a short-term window ending 2025-10-28. The thesis expected 22% growth. It pointed to sales up 44%, chips used for artificial intelligence at 60% of revenue, a price near $240 where large investors often buy, reported rush orders, and U.S. factory support reducing supply risk.
Inside the window, TSM reached the $291 target in 64 days. The stock later peaked at $310.53 on 2025-10-16, with a 29.4% gain. It ended the window at $300.72. The thesis played out.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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