Track record · closed signal

ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) — closed signal from July 30, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 28, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

ASML price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$717.22 Published $894.93 Target $1,050.62 Window close $1,058.85 Peak
$692.54 – $707.49Entry zone — fair-value band
$717.22Published — price the day we called it
$894.93Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$1,058.85Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$1,050.62Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 50 days.

Peak price
$1,058.85
peak on October 27, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+47.6%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$1,050.62
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
50
Window
July 30, 2025 – October 28, 2025

The thesis — published July 30, 2025

Predicted growth
+25%
over the measurement window
Target price
$894.93
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$692.54 – $707.49
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$717.22
published July 30, 2025
Confidence
93%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

The share price fell about 10% because of worry over trade rules, even though chip factories keep ordering ASML machines for AI chips. Investor mood is very strong and the price is now near 700 euros, a level that has stopped every decline this year. Updates in September and October should remind the market that these machines are in short supply, possibly pushing the stock toward 900 euros within three months.

Primary drivers

  • ASML is the only supplier of key machines needed for the latest AI chips.
  • After similar drops to this price level, the stock often climbs double digits in weeks.
  • Upcoming conferences and earnings call should reveal progress and new machine orders.
  • News of looser Dutch export rules lowers China worry and keeps investor mood high.

How it played out

ASML: target reached in 50 days

Lyra published ASML at 717.22 on 2025-07-30 with expected growth of 25%. The thesis pointed to demand for ASML machines used in artificial intelligence chips, prior rebounds near the same price area, upcoming conferences and earnings, and looser Dutch export rules easing China worry.

Inside the window, ASML reached the 894.93 target in 50 days. The stock kept rising to a 1058.85 peak on 2025-10-27, with a peak gain of 47.6%. It ended the window at 1050.62. The thesis played out and then went further.

What happened during the window

On 2025-10-15, ASML reported third-quarter earnings of 5.49 euros per share and revenue of 7.52 billion euros. The same report said ASML expected fourth-quarter sales between 9.2 billion and 9.8 billion euros.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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