Track record · closed signal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) — closed signal from April 29, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on July 28, 2026 — -0.1% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$378.61 – $393.55Entry zone — fair-value band

$392.57Published — price the day we called it

$462.38Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$479.00Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$392.31Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 50 days.

At window close

-0.1%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+22%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+4.4%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$392.31

last close inside the window, ended July 28, 2026

Peak price

$479.00

peak on June 30, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published April 29, 2026

Predicted growth

+18%

over the measurement window

Target price

$462.38

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$378.61 – $393.55

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$392.57

published April 29, 2026

Confidence

84%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

TSM just reported a very strong quarter and raised its outlook, pushing the stock to new highs. Demand for chips tied to AI and strong profit margins explain the positive results. A healthy balance sheet and solid earnings make the setup attractive, but the recent jump means the stock has less room to be a bargain right now.

Primary drivers

Growing orders from AI-related chip customers drive revenue expansion
A higher company outlook makes future sales and profits clearer
Healthy profit margins and cash on the balance sheet support stability
Price action shows strength backed by higher-than-normal buying

How it played out

TSM: target reached in 50 days

Lyra published TSM at $392.57 with an expected gain of 18% and a $462.38 target. The thesis pointed to growing chip orders tied to artificial intelligence, a higher company outlook, healthy margins and cash, and strong buying activity.

The stock reached the target in 50 days. It peaked at $479 on June 30, a gain of 22%, then fell back to $392.31 by the end of the window. The thesis played out within the measured period, although the gain did not hold through the close.

What happened during the window

On June 10, TSMC reported May revenue of NT$416.98 billion, up 30.1% from May 2025. On July 16, it reported second-quarter revenue of NT$1,270.38 billion and net income of NT$706.56 billion.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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