Track record · closed signal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) — closed signal from April 29, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on July 28, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$392.57 Published $462.38 Target $392.31 Window close $479.00 Peak
$378.61 – $393.55Entry zone — fair-value band
$392.57Published — price the day we called it
$462.38Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$479.00Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$392.31Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 50 days.

Peak price
$479.00
peak on June 30, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+22%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$392.31
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
50
Window
April 29, 2026 – July 28, 2026

The thesis — published April 29, 2026

Predicted growth
+18%
over the measurement window
Target price
$462.38
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$378.61 – $393.55
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$392.57
published April 29, 2026
Confidence
84%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

TSM just reported a very strong quarter and raised its outlook, pushing the stock to new highs. Demand for chips tied to AI and strong profit margins explain the positive results. A healthy balance sheet and solid earnings make the setup attractive, but the recent jump means the stock has less room to be a bargain right now.

Primary drivers

  • Growing orders from AI-related chip customers drive revenue expansion
  • A higher company outlook makes future sales and profits clearer
  • Healthy profit margins and cash on the balance sheet support stability
  • Price action shows strength backed by higher-than-normal buying

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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