Track record · closed signal

Philip Morris International Inc (PM) — closed signal from April 28, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on July 27, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

PM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$163.06 Published $181.12 Target $195.66 Window close $199.78 Peak
$157.38 – $162.30Entry zone — fair-value band
$163.06Published — price the day we called it
$181.12Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$199.78Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$195.66Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 14 days.

Peak price
$199.78
peak on July 22, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+22.5%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$195.66
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
14
Window
April 28, 2026 – July 27, 2026

The thesis — published April 28, 2026

Predicted growth
+12%
over the measurement window
Target price
$181.12
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$157.38 – $162.30
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$163.06
published April 28, 2026
Confidence
69%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Philip Morris looks clearer than many consumer staples because growth is coming from smoke-free products and the ZYN oral nicotine brand, while quarterly results were solid. Insider stock sales and the companys debt level reduce confidence, and the stock is not deeply cheap. Near-term setup seems constructive but less exciting than stronger cyclical names.

Primary drivers

  • Smoke-free products are shifting sales toward higher-growth items
  • ZYN oral nicotine is large enough to move overall sales
  • A recent earnings beat shows the business is executing
  • Insider selling and higher debt lower conviction

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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