Track record · closed signal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) — closed signal from April 27, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on July 26, 2026 — -0% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$403.44 Published $459.07 Target $403.41 Window close $479.00 Peak
$383.59 – $398.53Entry zone — fair-value band
$403.44Published — price the day we called it
$459.07Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$479.00Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$403.41Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 52 days.

At window close
-0%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+18.7%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+3.6%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$403.41
last close inside the window, ended July 26, 2026
Peak price
$479.00
peak on June 30, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
52

The thesis — published April 27, 2026

Predicted growth
+14%
over the measurement window
Target price
$459.07
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$383.59 – $398.53
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$403.44
published April 27, 2026
Confidence
78%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

TSM is a leading maker of chips used in AI and high-performance devices. Strong profit margins, steady earnings, and heavy demand for next-generation AI chips and packaging make its business durable. The stock jumped recently, so the clearest opportunity in the near term is during a period of price consolidation rather than expecting another fast move higher.

Primary drivers

  • Rising demand for AI chips and advanced packaging keeps factories busy
  • Consistent earnings show the business runs reliably
  • High profits and cash make the company more resilient in downturns
  • Recent strong price moves mean waiting for a calmer entry looks preferable

How it played out

TSM: target reached in 52 days

Lyra published TSM at 403.44 with an expected gain of 14% and a target of 459.07. The thesis pointed to demand for artificial intelligence chips and advanced packaging, consistent earnings, high profits and cash, and resilience during downturns. It also favored a calmer entry after recent strong price moves.

The stock reached the target after 52 days. It peaked at 479 on June 30, for a peak gain of 18.7%. By the end of the window, it was back at 403.41. The published target was reached, so the thesis played out within the stated period.

What happened during the window

On July 16, 2026, TSMC reported second-quarter revenue of NT$1,270.38 billion and net income of NT$706.56 billion.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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