Track record · closed signal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) — closed signal from April 27, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on July 26, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$403.44 Published $459.07 Target $403.41 Window close $479.00 Peak
$383.59 – $398.53Entry zone — fair-value band
$403.44Published — price the day we called it
$459.07Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$479.00Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$403.41Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 52 days.

Peak price
$479.00
peak on June 30, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+18.7%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$403.41
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
52
Window
April 27, 2026 – July 26, 2026

The thesis — published April 27, 2026

Predicted growth
+14%
over the measurement window
Target price
$459.07
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$383.59 – $398.53
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$403.44
published April 27, 2026
Confidence
78%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

TSM is a leading maker of chips used in AI and high-performance devices. Strong profit margins, steady earnings, and heavy demand for next-generation AI chips and packaging make its business durable. The stock jumped recently, so the clearest opportunity in the near term is during a period of price consolidation rather than expecting another fast move higher.

Primary drivers

  • Rising demand for AI chips and advanced packaging keeps factories busy
  • Consistent earnings show the business runs reliably
  • High profits and cash make the company more resilient in downturns
  • Recent strong price moves mean waiting for a calmer entry looks preferable

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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