Track record · closed signal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) — closed signal from April 26, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on July 25, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$401.72 Published $461.13 Target $415.58 Window close $479.00 Peak
$383.59 – $403.51Entry zone — fair-value band
$401.72Published — price the day we called it
$461.13Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$479.00Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$415.58Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 53 days.

Peak price
$479.00
peak on June 30, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+19.2%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$415.58
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
53
Window
April 26, 2026 – July 25, 2026

The thesis — published April 26, 2026

Predicted growth
+15%
over the measurement window
Target price
$461.13
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$383.59 – $403.51
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$401.72
published April 26, 2026
Confidence
83%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

TSM is the top contract chipmaker and is benefiting from strong demand for AI and high-performance computing chips. Its steady profits and solid balance sheet make the business resilient beyond short-term hype. The main concern is the stock has run up and likely needs time to pull back before further gains.

Primary drivers

  • AI accelerator and high-performance computing are driving foundry orders
  • Consistent quarterly profits show operational reliability
  • A strong balance sheet and high profit margins reduce downside risk
  • Recent media focus boosts attention, but price extension warns on timing

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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