Track record · closed signal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) — closed signal from April 24, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on July 23, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$399.85 Published $439.03 Target $415.58 Window close $479.00 Peak
$384.58 – $393.55Entry zone — fair-value band
$399.85Published — price the day we called it
$439.03Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$479.00Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$415.58Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 38 days.

Peak price
$479.00
peak on June 30, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+19.8%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$415.58
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
38
Window
April 24, 2026 – July 23, 2026

The thesis — published April 24, 2026

Predicted growth
+10%
over the measurement window
Target price
$439.03
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$384.58 – $393.55
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$399.85
published April 24, 2026
Confidence
72%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

TSMC benefits from strong demand for advanced chips and recent positive news from record highs and easier Taiwan fund flows, which can keep big investors interested short-term. The stock has already risen a lot, so the potential reward looks better if the price pulls back some instead of chasing higher levels now.

Primary drivers

  • Strong demand for chips used in AI and data centers
  • Easier Taiwan fund flows can steady institutional buying
  • New highs show leadership but the run is extended
  • A modest pullback would make upside vs. downside more attractive

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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