Track record · closed signal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) — closed signal from April 24, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on July 23, 2026 — +3.9% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$384.58 – $393.55Entry zone — fair-value band

$399.85Published — price the day we called it

$439.03Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$479.00Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$415.58Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 38 days.

At window close

+3.9%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+19.8%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+3.7%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$415.58

last close inside the window, ended July 23, 2026

Peak price

$479.00

peak on June 30, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published April 24, 2026

Predicted growth

+10%

over the measurement window

Target price

$439.03

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$384.58 – $393.55

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$399.85

published April 24, 2026

Confidence

72%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

TSMC benefits from strong demand for advanced chips and recent positive news from record highs and easier Taiwan fund flows, which can keep big investors interested short-term. The stock has already risen a lot, so the potential reward looks better if the price pulls back some instead of chasing higher levels now.

Primary drivers

Strong demand for chips used in AI and data centers
Easier Taiwan fund flows can steady institutional buying
New highs show leadership but the run is extended
A modest pullback would make upside vs. downside more attractive

How it played out

TSM: target reached in 38 days

On April 24, Lyra published a short-term thesis at 399.85, with 10% expected growth and a 439.03 target. The thesis pointed to strong demand for advanced chips used in artificial intelligence and data centers, easier Taiwan fund flows, institutional interest, and new highs. It also said the run was extended and that a pullback into the 384.58 to 393.55 entry zone offered a better setup.

The target was reached in 38 days. TSM later peaked at 479 on June 30, a 19.8% gain, before ending the window at 415.58 on July 23. The published upside thesis played out, although the stock finished below the target after reaching it.

What happened during the window

On May 8, TSMC reported April revenue of NT$410.73 billion, up 17.5% from April 2025. On July 16, it reported second-quarter revenue of NT$1,270.38 billion and net income of NT$706.56 billion.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All TSM signals